The association between environmental factors and Engelmann spruce mortality in western Colorado was investigated using Bayesian hierarchical zero‐and‐one inflated beta regressive model. The results indicated that the probability of mortality occurrence rate was positively associated with moderate to warm temperature zones, moderate precipitation, and single canopy stands with the smaller size class of spruce within stands. The probability of full mortality rate was positively associated with warm and humid climate zones with spruce as subdominant species in the vertically complex stands. On the other hand, higher mortality rate was more associated with local stand characteristics than climate factors that low mortality rate associated with stands dominated by spruce of a large size classes. The correlation model offers an approach to create predicted risk map for probability and rate of spruce mortality that could help manager in precedent planning for the upcoming outbreak events.

中文翻译：

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使用贝叶斯层次模型研究科罗拉多州云杉林中云杉甲虫引起的死亡率的可能性

使用贝叶斯分级零和一膨胀的β回归模型研究了科罗拉多州西部环境因素与Engelmann云杉死亡率之间的关系。结果表明，死亡率发生率的概率与中温至暖温带，中度降水和单一林冠林以及林分内较小的云杉呈正相关。在垂直复杂林分中，全死亡率的可能性与温暖和湿润的气候带呈正相关，云杉为主要物种。另一方面，较高的死亡率与当地林分的特征相关，而不是与气候因素有关的气候因子，与低水平的林分相关的低死亡率是由大规格云杉主导的。