Recent advances in noninvasive genetic sampling and spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) techniques are particularly useful for monitoring cryptic wildlife species such as carnivores. In southern Arizona, USA, coyotes (Canis latrans) are thought to negatively affect endangered Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis), although no estimates of coyote abundance or monitoring programs exist. Sonoran pronghorn are provided supplemental feed and water in this region, resulting in areas where pronghorn and other species are congregated. Because of the higher density of artificial water sources for Sonoran pronghorn on the Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge (CPNWR), we predicted that coyote density would be higher relative to the Barry M. Goldwater Range (BMGR), where artificial water sources are less dense. We used discrete Bayesian SCR models in a local evaluation approach to provide baseline estimates of coyote abundance and understand how coyote density varied between 2 contrasting areas of land use. We identified 106 individuals from scat samples across 3 sessions in 2013 and 2014 and achieved high genotyping and individual identification success rates (~78%). Encounter rates at water catchments were nearly 11 times higher compared to road and trail transects. As predicted, we found that coyote density was on average 2 times higher on the CPNWR (11.2 coyotes/100 km²) compared to the BMGR (5.3 coyotes/100 km²). The local evaluation approach significantly reduced computational time, making the discrete Bayesian approach more practical to implement across a large study area. Our study represents an important contribution towards developing a robust monitoring program for coyotes. We hope that our novel implementation of the local evaluation approach increases the ability of wildlife managers to understand the effects of land use and other ecological influences on large carnivore populations. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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用局部离散贝叶斯捕获-捕获模型估算土狼密度

非侵入式基因采样和空间捕获重新捕获（SCR）技术的最新进展对于监控食肉动物等隐性野生物种特别有用。在美国亚利桑那州南部，土狼（Canis latrans）被认为会对濒临灭绝的Sonoran叉角羚（Antilocapra americana sonoriensis）产生负面影响），尽管没有关于土狼丰度或监测程序的估计。在该区域向Sonoran叉角羚提供补充饲料和水，导致叉角羚和其他物种聚集的地区。由于Cabeza Prieta国家野生动物保护区（CPNWR）上Sonoran叉角羚的人工水源密度较高，因此我们预测土狼密度相对于人工水源密度较小的Barry M. Goldwater Range（BMGR）要高。 。我们在局部评估方法中使用了离散的贝叶斯SCR模型，以提供土狼丰度的基线估计，并了解土狼密度在两个土地利用的相对区域之间如何变化。我们在2013年和2014年的3次会议中从粪便样本中识别出106个人，并获得了高基因分型和个人识别成功率（〜78％）。与公路和步道横断面相比，集水区的遭遇率高出近11倍。正如预测的那样，我们发现CPNWR的土狼密度平均高出2倍（11.2土狼/ 100 km²），而BMGR（5.3土狼/ 100 km ²）。局部评估方法显着减少了计算时间，使得离散贝叶斯方法在较大的研究区域内实施更为实用。我们的研究代表了对开发强大的土狼监测计划的重要贡献。我们希望我们对地方评估方法的新颖实施能够提高野生动植物管理者了解土地利用和其他生态影响对大型食肉动物种群的影响。©2020野生动物协会。