Impact of sudden stratospheric warmings on United Kingdom mortality,Atmospheric Science Letters

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Impact of sudden stratospheric warmings on United Kingdom mortality
Atmospheric Science Letters ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-27 , DOI: 10.1002/asl.1013
Andrew J. Charlton‐Perez ₁ , Wan Ting Katty Huang ₁ , Simon H. Lee ₁

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Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) during boreal winter are one of the main drivers of sub‐seasonal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Although the impact of SSW events on surface climate and climate extremes has been clearly demonstrated, the impact of the resulting climate anomalies on society has not been so widely considered. In the United Kingdom (UK), SSWs are associated with cold weather, which is linked to significant increases in mortality. This study demonstrates, for the first time, that SSWs are linked to increases in mortality in the UK. A distributed lag nonlinear model and standard parameter settings from the literature is used to construct a daily time series of UK deaths attributable to cold weather between 1991 and 2018. Weekly mortality associated with SSWs is diagnosed using a superposed epoch analysis of attributed mortality for the 15 SSW events in this period. SSW associated mortality peaks between 3 and 5 weeks after SSW central date and leads to, on average, 620 additional deaths in the same period. Given that the impacts of SSWs can be skilfully predicted on sub‐seasonal timescales, this suggests that health and social care systems could derive substantial benefit from sub‐seasonal forecasts during SSWs.

中文翻译：

平流层突然变暖对英国死亡率的影响

北半球冬季平流层突然变暖（SSWs）是北半球次季节气候变率的主要驱动因素之一。尽管 SSW 事件对地表气候和气候极端事件的影响已得到明确证明，但由此产生的气候异常对社会的影响尚未得到广泛考虑。在英国 (UK)，SSW 与寒冷天气有关，这与死亡率显着增加有关。这项研究首次表明，SSW 与英国死亡率增加有关。文献中的分布式滞后非线性模型和标准参数设置用于构建英国 1991 年至 2018 年间因寒冷天气死亡人数的每日时间序列。使用该时期 15 次 SSW 事件归因死亡率的叠加时代分析来诊断与 SSW 相关的每周死亡率。SSW 相关死亡率在 SSW 中心日期后 3 至 5 周达到峰值，并导致同期平均 620 人死亡。鉴于可以在次季节性时间尺度上巧妙地预测 SSW 的影响，这表明卫生和社会保健系统可以从 SSW 期间的次季节性预测中获得巨大收益。

更新日期：2020-10-27

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