1. Gut microbiome disequilibrium is increasingly implicated in host fitness reductions, including for the economically important and disease‐challenged western honey bee Apis mellifera. In laboratory experiments, the antibiotic tetracycline, which is used to prevent American Foulbrood Disease in countries including the US, elevates honey bee mortality by disturbing the microbiome. It is unclear, however, how elevated individual mortality affects colony‐level fitness.
2. We used an agent‐based model (BEEHAVE) and empirical data to assess colony‐level effects of antibiotic‐induced worker bee mortality, by measuring colony size. We investigated the relationship between the duration that the antibiotic‐induced mortality probability is imposed for and colony size.
3. We found that when simulating antibiotic‐induced mortality of worker bees from just 60 days per year, up to a permanent effect, the colony is reduced such that tetracycline treatment would not meet the European Food Safety Authority's (EFSA) honey bee protection goals. When antibiotic mortality was imposed for the hypothetical minimal exposure time, which assumes that antibiotics only impact the bee's fitness during the recommended treatment period of 15 days in both spring and autumn, the colony fitness reduction was only marginally under the EFSA's threshold.
4. Synthesis and Applications. Modelling colony‐level impacts of antibiotic treatment shows that individual honey bee worker mortality can lead to colony mortality. To assess the full impact, the persistence of antibiotic‐induced mortality in honey bees must be determined experimentally, in vivo. We caution that as the domestication of new insect species increases, maintaining healthy gut microbiomes is of paramount importance to insect health and commercial productivity. The recommendation from this work is to limit prophylactic use of antibiotics and to not exceed recommended treatment strategies for domesticated insects. This is especially important for highly social insects as excess antibiotic use will likely decrease colony growth and an increase in colony mortality.

中文翻译：

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抗生素治疗对蜜蜂菌落适应性的长期影响：一种建模方法

1. 肠道微生物组的失衡越来越多地牵涉到宿主适应性的降低，包括经济上重要且受疾病困扰的西方蜜蜂蜜蜂。在实验室实验中，抗生素四环素在包括美国在内的一些国家用于预防美国禽类疾病，通过干扰微生物组来提高蜜蜂的死亡率。但是，尚不清楚个体死亡率的升高如何影响菌落水平的适应性。
2. 我们使用了基于代理的模型（BEEHAVE）和经验数据，通过测量菌落大小来评估抗生素引起的工蜂死亡率的菌落水平影响。我们研究了抗生素诱导的死亡概率强加的持续时间与菌落大小之间的关系。
3. 我们发现，从每年仅60天开始模拟抗生素引起的工蜂死亡率，直至达到永久影响，该菌落会减少，以致四环素治疗无法达到欧洲食品安全局（EFSA）的蜜蜂保护目标。当假设假定的最短暴露时间对抗生素造成死亡时（假设抗生素仅在春季和秋季的15天建议治疗期间影响蜜蜂的适应能力），则菌落适应性降低仅略低于EFSA的阈值。
4. 综合与应用。对抗生素治疗对菌落水平的影响进行建模显示，蜜蜂工个人的死亡率可能导致菌落死亡率。为了评估全部影响，必须通过体内实验确定蜜蜂引起的抗生素持久性。我们告诫，随着新昆虫种类的驯化增加，保持健康的肠道微生物群对昆虫健康和商业生产力至关重要。这项工作的建议是限制预防性使用抗生素，并且不超过建议的驯化昆虫治疗策略。这对于高度社交的昆虫尤其重要，因为过量使用抗生素可能会降低菌落的生长并增加菌落的死亡率。