In this paper, we introduce a Markovian approach to study the stability and growth of citations in academic journals by featuring a regime-switching analysis. We characterize the regime structure exhibited by the series of citations available in the Web of Science database and determine the series’ transition probabilities across regimes. Our main result shows that for most of the journals studied, the series of citations exhibit a stable growth, remaining majorly in a dominant regime identified as one of low or high number of citations.

中文翻译：

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学术论文引文研究的马尔可夫转换法

在本文中，我们介绍了一种马尔可夫方法，通过进行制度转换分析来研究学术期刊中引文的稳定性和增长。我们表征了Web of Science数据库中可用的一系列引文所展示的制度结构，并确定了该制度在不同制度下的过渡概率。我们的主要结果表明，研究最多的期刊，该系列引文呈现稳定的增长，在确定为一个主导政权剩余majorly低或高引用次数的。