Depending on how the future will unfold, today’s progress in biotechnology research has greater or lesser potential to be the basis of subsequent innovation. Tracking progress against indicators for different future scenarios will help to focus, emphasize, or de-emphasize discovery research in a timely manner and to maximize the chance for successful innovation. In this paper, we show how learning scenarios with a 2050 time horizon help to recognize the implications of political and societal developments on the innovation potential of ongoing biotechnological research. We also propose a model to further increase open innovation between academia and the biotechnology value chain to help fundamental research explore discovery fields that have a greater chance to be valuable for applied research.

根据未来的发展方式，当今生物技术研究的进展或多或少有可能成为后续创新的基础。根据不同未来情景的指标跟踪进展将有助于及时关注、强调或淡化发现研究，并最大限度地提高创新成功的机会。在本文中，我们展示了 2050 年时间范围内的学习情景如何帮助认识到政治和社会发展对正在进行的生物技术研究的创新潜力的影响。我们还提出了一个模型，以进一步增加学术界和生物技术价值链之间的开放式创新，以帮助基础研究探索更有可能对应用研究有价值的发现领域。