Abstract The frequency of occurrences per facility-year, their probabilities, and their uncertainties are critical inputs to hazard and risk management plans for underground storage facilities. We used Bayesian analysis to investigate and quantify the occurrence frequencies at US underground natural gas storage facilities in porous rock and salt-cavern storage facilities. Occurrences for each of the 31 hosting states were classified by storage type, probable cause, and severity. States having the largest number of occurrences at the lowest, nuisance-group level of severity are California and Pennsylvania (for oil-and-gas storage), Iowa and Illinois (for aquifer storage), and Texas (for salt-cavern storage). Those states having the longest operational experience in natural-gas storage, as inferred by the number of facility-years, are Pennsylvania (for oil-and-gas storage), Illinois (for aquifer storage), and Texas (for salt-cavern storage). Bayesian nuisance-group occurrence frequencies are generally within a two order-of-magnitude range, 10−3 to 10−1 (P5–P95), with greater variability for salt-cavern storage. Serious- and catastrophic-group occurrence frequencies for depleted oil-and-gas storages decrease to 10−4 to 10−2 for all states except for California, Colorado, and, for aquifer storage, in Illinois, that remain consistent with their nuisance-group levels. The data do not support previous correlations of high occurrence frequencies with well age or construction practices. Instead, anomalously high occurrence frequencies for individual states might be associated with increased testing of wells and related infrastructure, or particular subsurface conditions that might promote location-specific hazards such as corrosion of well components.

中文翻译：

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美国各州地下天然气储存设施的发生频率和不确定性

摘要 每设施年发生的频率、概率和不确定性是地下储存设施危险和风险管理计划的关键输入。我们使用贝叶斯分析来调查和量化美国地下天然气储存设施在多孔岩石和盐穴储存设施中的发生频率。31 个托管状态中每一个的发生都按存储类型、可能的原因和严重程度进行分类。发生次数最多且危害级别最低的州是加利福尼亚州和宾夕法尼亚州（石油和天然气储存）、爱荷华州和伊利诺伊州（含水层储存）以及德克萨斯州（盐穴储存）。根据设施年数推断，那些在天然气储存方面拥有最长运营经验的州，是宾夕法尼亚州（用于石油和天然气储存）、伊利诺伊州（用于含水层储存）和德克萨斯州（用于盐穴储存）。Bayesian nuisance-group 发生频率通常在两个数量级范围内，10-3 到 10-1 (P5-P95)，盐穴储存具有更大的可变性。除了加利福尼亚州、科罗拉多州和伊利诺伊州的含水层储存，枯竭油气储存的严重和灾难性组发生频率下降到 10-4 到 10-2，这与它们的滋扰保持一致。组级别。数据不支持高发生频率与井龄或施工实践的先前相关性。相反，个别州异常高的发生频率可能​​与油井和相关基础设施测试的增加有关，