Abstract Effective policies that integrate climate change considerations are crucial for successful adaptation to increasing climate risks. While there is an abundant normative literature proposing potential effective ways to adapt, there is a lack of empirical literature on current risk and adaptation policy and its potential effectiveness. Studying existing policies can help to reveal existing constraints, draw inferences about performance and design future policies. However, there is no established method for assessing risk management and adaptation policies. Addressing these gaps, we developed an analytical framework, combining and extending existing approaches, to assess the potential policy effectiveness in dealing with climate risks. The framework merges aspects of climate integration, policy coherence and compliance. Applying this framework to coastal risk management and coastal adaptation policies in the Maldives, we conducted a desk review of policy documents and semi-structured interviews with coastal policy experts and stakeholders. We find five policies addressing coastal risks and adaptation. One of these integrates sea-level rise considerations but is not legally binding. A key constraint on policy coherence are static approaches that ignore the variance in hydrodynamic hazard across the archipelago. Moreover, compliance is constrained by low capacities to monitor actual land use, political influence on the allocation of coastal protections and insufficient coastal protection budgets. Based on these findings, we expect that coastal policies are ill-prepared for dealing with sea-level rise and that scaling-up sea-level rise integration into policy is a critical first step towards improving this.

中文翻译：

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评估适应政策潜在有效性的框架：马尔代夫的沿海风险和海平面上升

摘要 整合气候变化考虑因素的有效政策对于成功适应日益增加的气候风险至关重要。虽然有大量规范性文献提出了潜在的有效适应方法，但缺乏关于当前风险和适应政策及其潜在有效性的实证文献。研究现有政策有助于揭示现有限制、推断绩效和设计未来政策。但是，没有既定的方法来评估风险管理和适应政策。针对这些差距，我们开发了一个分析框架，结合并扩展了现有方法，以评估应对气候风险的潜在政策有效性。该框架融合了气候一体化、政策一致性和合规性的各个方面。将此框架应用于马尔代夫的沿海风险管理和沿海适应政策，我们对政策文件进行了案头审查，并对沿海政策专家和利益相关者进行了半结构化访谈。我们发现了五项解决沿海风险和适应问题的政策。其中之一综合了海平面上升的考虑，但不具有法律约束力。政策一致性的一个关键限制是静态方法，它忽略了整个群岛的水动力灾害的差异。此外，由于监测实际土地使用的能力低下、对海岸保护分配的政治影响以及海岸保护预算不足，合规性受到限制。基于这些发现，