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Global socio-economic impacts of changes in natural capital and ecosystem services: State of play and new modeling approaches
Ecosystem Services ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101202
Onil Banerjee , Neville Crossman , Renato Vargas , Luke Brander , Peter Verburg , Martin Cicowiez , Jennifer Hauck , Emily McKenzie

The year 2020 is a critical year for sustainable development policy and practice with the review and renewal of various international commitments including the Sustainable Development Goals, the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Paris Agreement. The post-2020 agenda needs to be informed by more robust analytical approaches that capture the interactions between the economy, society and the environment. In this paper, we review the state of the art in available models and datasets that lay the groundwork for future analytical work to inform this agenda. Based on this review, we propose an integrated modeling approach for global analysis to underpin international policy discourse and advocacy, and; a sub-global approach focusing on evaluating specific strategies and policy portfolios to make progress toward sustainability commitments considering detailed local country context. Both approaches rely on integrating whole of economy computable general equilibrium models with spatial land use land cover and ecosystem services models. Endogenizing feedbacks between modeling system components ensures that evidence is based on interactions between all system components. Recent advances in methods, data and available tools discussed herein reduce barriers to entry for this type of complex systems analysis and increases the timeliness of policy advice.



中文翻译:

自然资本和生态系统服务变化的全球社会经济影响:发展状况和新的建模方法

2020年是可持续发展政策和实践的关键一年,它将审查和更新包括可持续发展目标,《生物多样性公约》和《巴黎协定》在内的各种国际承诺。2020年后的议程需要以更强大的分析方法为基础,这些方法可以捕获经济,社会和环境之间的相互作用。在本文中,我们回顾了可用模型和数据集中的最新技术,这些模型和数据集为将来进行分析以告知该议程奠定了基础。在此审查的基础上,我们提出了一种用于全球分析的综合建模方法,以支持国际政策的话语和倡导,并且 一种次全球方法,重点是评估具体的策略和政策组合,以在考虑详细的当地国家/地区背景的情况下朝着可持续发展承诺取得进展。两种方法都依赖于将整个经济可计算的一般均衡模型与空间土地利用,土地覆盖和生态系统服务模型相结合。对建模系统组件之间的反馈进行内生化可确保证据基于所有系统组件之间的交互。本文讨论的方法,数据和可用工具的最新进展减少了此类复杂系统分析的进入门槛,并增加了政策建议的及时性。对建模系统组件之间的反馈进行内生化可确保证据基于所有系统组件之间的交互。本文讨论的方法,数据和可用工具的最新进展减少了此类复杂系统分析的进入门槛,并增加了政策建议的及时性。对建模系统组件之间的反馈进行内生化可确保证据基于所有系统组件之间的交互。本文讨论的方法,数据和可用工具的最新进展减少了此类复杂系统分析的进入门槛,并增加了政策建议的及时性。

更新日期:2020-10-30
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