Abstract We introduce a novel econometric approach to estimate economic pest control feedbacks within agroecological systems, using discrete choice endogenous sorting models. We apply this approach to deployment of transgenic Bt maize in the Philippines. We show with basic theory how areawide pest suppression from largescale Bt maize deployment attenuates farmers' demand for this technology. Econometric results support this hypothesis and imply long-run demand for the Bt trait is price-inelastic, contrasting with price-elastic demand estimated from a model without feedback. Investigating whether this feedback truly derives from areawide pest suppression, we analyze farmers' pest infestation expectations and find expected damages are significantly reduced by higher areawide Bt deployment. We discuss implications of these findings and other potential applications of the econometric approach to study coupled biological and economic systems.

中文翻译：

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菲律宾转基因农药玉米需求的景观级反馈

摘要 我们引入了一种新的计量经济学方法来估计农业生态系统内的经济害虫控制反馈，使用离散选择内生分类模型。我们将这种方法应用于在菲律宾部署转基因 Bt 玉米。我们用基本理论展示了大规模 Bt 玉米部署的区域性害虫抑制如何减弱农民对这项技术的需求。计量经济学结果支持这一假设，并暗示对 Bt 特性的长期需求是价格无弹性的，这与根据没有反馈的模型估计的价格弹性需求形成对比。调查这种反馈是否真的来自区域性害虫抑制，我们分析了农民的害虫侵扰预期，并发现更高的区域性 Bt 部署显着降低了预期损害。