Abstract Material use in buildings affects the climate over centuries, however, temporal aspects are often ignored in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Results too often promise uncontested precision of impacts occurring far into the future. Additionally, the validity of building LCAs is being questioned over inadequate scope and inventory. A dynamic LCA method for material use in buildings that addresses those concerns is presented, along with a case study of 20 buildings. In particular, a novel solution to account for delayed emissions is presented, along with future technological improvements. Climate change effects of material use in construction, operation, and end-of-life phases are estimated, from production, transport, construction-waste incineration, biogenic carbon-sequestration, and cement carbonation. Building subpart metrics reveal drivers of impacts and are used for generating statistical emission profiles. Application on a bottom-up harmonized dataset produces statistical results for building types (typology, timber/concrete) and building subparts (building elements, material categories). Global warming policy targets requires that the building industry focuses on interventions with short-term effects, such as low-impact materials in the construction phase and reduced construction waste. Uncertainty is estimated, and parameter influence assessed with global sensitivity analysis. Time horizon (TH), building lifetime, and construction waste parameters are found most sensitive. The method reduces uncertainty of postulated future impacts; an important step in the direction of policy-relevant modeling. We recommend that building LCA modeling practice adopts the presented methodological concepts to gain trust and policy-relevance.

中文翻译：

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估计建筑材料使用的动态气候变化影响——时间、不确定性和排放源

摘要 几个世纪以来，建筑物中的材料使用会影响气候，但是，生命周期评估 (LCA) 中经常忽略时间方面。结果往往承诺在遥远的未来发生的影响无可争议的精确度。此外，由于范围和清单不足，构建 LCA 的有效性受到质疑。介绍了解决这些问题的建筑材料使用动态 LCA 方法，以及 20 座建筑的案例研究。特别是，提出了一种解决延迟排放的新解决方案，以及未来的技术改进。从生产、运输、建筑垃圾焚烧、生物碳封存和水泥碳化，估算了建筑、运营和生命周期结束阶段材料使用对气候变化的影响。构建子部分指标揭示影响的驱动因素，并用于生成统计排放概况。在自下而上的协调数据集上的应用产生建筑类型（类型学、木材/混凝土）和建筑子部件（建筑元素、材料类别）的统计结果。全球变暖政策目标要求建筑行业关注具有短期影响的干预措施，例如在施工阶段使用低影响材料和减少建筑垃圾。估计不确定性，并通过全局敏感性分析评估参数影响。发现时间范围 (TH)、建筑寿命和建筑垃圾参数最为敏感。该方法减少了假设的未来影响的不确定性；政策相关建模方向的重要一步。