Like many cities across North America, Montreal has experienced shrinking bus ridership over recent years. Most literature has focused on the broader causes for ridership decline at the metropolitan or city level; few have considered ridership at the route level, particularly while accounting for various operational attributes and accessibility-to-jobs issues. Because service adjustments take place—and are felt by riders—at the route level, it is essential to explore bus-ridership phenomena at this same scale. Our study explores the determinants of bus ridership at the route level between 2012 and 2017 using two longitudinal random-coefficients models in Montreal. Our findings suggest that increasing the number of daily bus trips along a route and improving the average route speed are key factors in securing bus ridership gains. The service area’s regional accessibility to jobs by public transit around the route has a positive impact on bus ridership at the route level, showing the importance of land use and network structure. Additionally, our models show that reducing service frequency along a parallel route will lead to an increase in ridership along the main route. This study can be of use to transit planners and policymakers who require a more granular understanding of the factors that affect ridership at the route level.

中文翻译：

---

调整服务？了解加拿大蒙特利尔的路线级别随时间影响巴士乘客量的因素

与北美的许多城市一​​样，蒙特利尔近年来的公交客流量不断减少。大多数文献都集中在大都市或城市层面客流量下降的更广泛原因；很少有人在路线层面考虑过客流量，特别是在考虑到各种运营属性和就业机会问题的情况下。由于服务调整发生在路线级别，并且乘客会感觉到，因此有必要以相同的规模探索公交车乘客现象。我们的研究使用蒙特利尔的两个纵向随机系数模型，探讨了 2012 年至 2017 年期间路线级别公交车乘客量的决定因素。我们的研究结果表明，增加沿路线的每日公交车出行次数和提高平均路线速度是确保公交车客流量增加的关键因素。服务区周边公共交通的区域可达性对路线层面的公交客流量有积极影响，显示了土地利用和网络结构的重要性。此外，我们的模型表明，减少平行路线上的服务频率将导致主要路线上的乘客量增加。这项研究可用于需要更详细地了解影响路线级别乘客量的因素的交通规划者和政策制定者。