Abstract The offshore wind industry experienced a boost during the last decade in terms of size of wind farms and rated capacity of the wind turbines: towers are getting taller and blades are getting longer, constantly facing new and complex challenges. Because of the relative immaturity of the wind industry, and the fact that the offshore design standards stemmed from the oil and gas industry, it is generally acknowledged that the reliability levels achieved, although not very well understood, might result in partial safety factors not optimal for OWT. This paper addresses this situation by studying the reliability levels delivered by the current standards and assessing the validity of the safety factors through a reliability-based code calibration. The combination of the low probability of failure imposed on the design of OWTs and the computational cost of the aero-elastic time-domain simulations brings out the need to develop new approaches for reliability analyses. In this paper, the reliability analysis is performed using a Kriging surrogate model to approximate the load-effect from the aero-elastic simulations converting expensive-to-evaluate limit state functions to explicit functions. Subsequently, a calibration of the safety factors is carried out using the probabilistic models from literature. The approach is applied to an industry-reference turbine and support structure. The results showed very low probabilities of failure for the most severe design cases and confirm that the safety factors from the IEC are mostly adequate.

中文翻译：

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使用全耦合模拟校准海上风力涡轮机支撑结构的安全系数

摘要 近十年来，海上风电行业在风电场规模和风机额定容量方面经历了一次提升：塔架越来越高，叶片越来越长，不断面临新的复杂挑战。由于风电行业的相对不成熟，以及海上设计标准源于石油和天然气行业的事实，人们普遍承认，所达到的可靠性水平虽然不是很清楚，但可能会导致部分安全因素不是最佳的对于 OWT。本文通过研究当前标准提供的可靠性水平并通过基于可靠性的代码校准评估安全因素的有效性来解决这种情况。OWT 设计的低故障概率与气动弹性时域模拟的计算成本相结合，需要开发新的可靠性分析方法。在本文中，可靠性分析是使用克里金代理模型来近似来自气动弹性模拟的负载效应，将昂贵的评估极限状态函数转换为显式函数。随后，使用文献中的概率模型对安全系数进行校准。该方法应用于行业参考涡轮机和支撑结构。结果表明，在最严酷的设计情况下，发生故障的可能性非常低，并确认 IEC 的安全系数基本足够。