Throughout history, the Segura River Basin, located in the south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, has suffered from countless drought periods. They have largely been managed as occasional episodes of crisis through the reduction of the resources applied or the mobilisation of extraordinary resources. Recently, the phenomena of drought and water scarcity have been incorporated into Spain’s national hydrological plan. This has given rise to an improvement in their diagnosis and management and enables us to learn about how climate change affects their frequency and intensity. Agriculture is highly relevant in the basin, comprising mainly irrigated crops that represent more than 80% of total demand for a net area of more than 260,000 ha. There is an undeniable connection between this sector and the availability of water and in periods of drought, such as the recent episode in the Segura River Basin (drought declaration in the territorial area of the Segura River Basin through Royal Decree 356/2015 of 8 May), the reduction in the availability of water generates a significant impact on the agricultural sector. Therefore, by analysing the production value and net margin generated in the agri-food systems, both the values established in the 2015/21 Hydrological Plan and those estimated in the drought period 2015–2019, we seek to assess the economic impacts generated, as knowing the direct effect on the agricultural sector will enable us to quantify the opportunity cost resulting from not being able to apply 100% of the resources demanded.

中文翻译：

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干旱对塞古拉河流域灌溉作物的经济影响

纵观历史，位于伊比利亚半岛东南部的塞古拉河流域经历了无数干旱时期。通过减少所用资源或调动特殊资源，它们在很大程度上被作为偶尔的危机事件加以管理。最近，干旱和缺水现象已被纳入西班牙国家水文计划。这改善了它们的诊断和管理，并使我们能够了解气候变化如何影响它们的频率和强度。农业在该流域高度相关，主要包括灌溉作物，占净面积超过 260,000 公顷的总需求的 80% 以上。不可否认，该部门与可用水和干旱时期之间存在联系，例如最近发生在塞古拉河流域的事件（通过 5 月 8 日第 356/2015 号皇家法令宣布塞古拉河流域领土干旱），可用水量的减少对农业部门产生了重大影响。因此，通过分析农业食品系统产生的产值和净利润，包括 2015/21 年水文计划中确定的值和 2015-2019 年干旱期估计的值，我们试图评估产生的经济影响，如了解对农业部门的直接影响将使我们能够量化由于无法 100% 应用所需资源而导致的机会成本。可用水量的减少对农业部门产生了重大影响。因此，通过分析农业食品系统产生的产值和净利润，包括 2015/21 年水文计划中确定的值和 2015-2019 年干旱期估计的值，我们试图评估产生的经济影响，如了解对农业部门的直接影响将使我们能够量化由于无法 100% 应用所需资源而导致的机会成本。可用水量的减少对农业部门产生了重大影响。因此，通过分析农业食品系统中产生的产值和净利润，包括 2015/21 年水文计划中确定的值和 2015-2019 年干旱期估计的值，我们试图评估产生的经济影响，如了解对农业部门的直接影响将使我们能够量化由于无法 100% 应用所需资源而导致的机会成本。