The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of “change” drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction.

中文翻译：

---

使水务公司适应水文干旱的基于指数的多年保险：巴西圣保罗大都市区供水系统的案例研究

水务公司的可持续性受到气候和人为变化等非平稳驱动因素的威胁。为了应对潜在的经济损失，保险等工具可用于规划情景和减轻影响，但数据限制和风险不确定性会影响保费估计，从而影响业务可持续性。这项研究估计了水文干旱对圣保罗水务公司造成的业务中断可能造成的经济影响，以及如何通过保险计划减轻这种影响。多年期保险 (MYI) 是通过一系列“变革”驱动因素提出的：气候驱动因素，通过强制水资源评估和规划系统 (WEAP) 水文工具；人为驱动因素，通过用水需求预测；和经济驱动力，与公用事业公司最近在缺水期间采用的水价政策有关。在我们的研究案例中，评估的指数表明，仅涵盖长期干旱的 MYI 合同，无论其规模如何，都比涵盖所有事件的合同（在干旱持续时间方面）提供更好的财务绩效。此外，通过 MYI 合同，我们展示了保险基金的长期偿付能力，以及接近预期总收入减少的年度平均精算公平保费。