In the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, agricultural production depends on winter and spring precipitation. There is large interannual variability related to the teleconnection between the regional hydroclimate and El Nino and La Nina in the Tropical Pacific. A modeling experiment was conducted to simulate climatic and hydrological parameters in the Canadian Prairie region during strong El Nino and La Nina events of the last decade in 2015–2016 and 2010–2011, respectively. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to perform two sets of sensitivity experiments with a nested domain at 10 km resolution using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA) interim data as the lateral boundary forcing. Analysis of the hourly model output provides a detailed simulation of the drier winter, with less soil moisture in the following spring, during the 2015–2016 El Nino and a wet winter during the La Nina of 2010–2011. The high-resolution WRF simulation of these recent weather events agrees well with observations from weather stations and water gauges. Therefore, we were able to take advantage of the WRF model to simulate recent weather with high spatial and temporal resolution and thus study the changes in hydrometeorological parameters across the Prairie during the two extreme hydrological events of the last decade.

中文翻译：

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由于 ENSO 遥相关，加拿大大草原在过去十年中的水文极端情况——使用 WRF 的比较案例研究

在艾伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省和马尼托巴省的草原省份，农业生产依赖于冬季和春季的降水。区域水文气候与热带太平洋厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象之间的遥相关性存在较大的年际变化。进行了建模实验，以模拟过去十年分别在 2015-2016 年和 2010-2011 年强厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件期间加拿大草原地区的气候和水文参数。使用国家大气研究中心 (NCAR) 天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型，使用欧洲中期天气预报再分析中心 (ERA) 中期数据，在 10 公里分辨率的嵌套域中执行两组敏感性实验作为横向边界强迫。每小时模型输出的分析提供了对 2015-2016 年厄尔尼诺现象和 2010-2011 年拉尼娜现象期间第二年春季土壤水分较少的干燥冬季的详细模拟。这些近期天气事件的高分辨率 WRF 模拟与气象站和水位计的观测结果非常吻合。因此，我们能够利用 WRF 模型以高空间和时间分辨率模拟近期天气，从而研究过去十年两次极端水文事件期间整个草原的水文气象参数变化。这些近期天气事件的高分辨率 WRF 模拟与气象站和水位计的观测结果非常吻合。因此，我们能够利用 WRF 模型以高空间和时间分辨率模拟近期天气，从而研究过去十年两次极端水文事件期间整个草原的水文气象参数变化。这些近期天气事件的高分辨率 WRF 模拟与气象站和水位计的观测结果非常吻合。因此，我们能够利用 WRF 模型以高空间和时间分辨率模拟近期天气，从而研究过去十年两次极端水文事件期间整个草原的水文气象参数变化。