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Evidence of unprecedented rise in growth synchrony from global tree ring records
Nature Ecology & Evolution ( IF 13.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-26 , DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01306-x
Rubén Delgado Manzanedo , Janneke HilleRisLambers , Tim Tito Rademacher , Neil Pederson

Changes in the temporal coherence between populations, which can influence their stability, resilience and persistence, remain a critical uncertainty of climate change. Recent studies have documented increasing spatial synchrony between populations at continental scales and linked it to anthropogenic climate change. However, the lack of long-term and global baseline perspectives on spatial synchrony presents a challenge to understanding the importance of these trends. Here, we show a steady rise in the spatial synchrony of annual tree growth from a global tree ring database over the past 50 years that is consistent across continents, species and environmental conditions and is unprecedented for the past millennium. Increasing growth synchrony coincided with warming trends and potentially rising synchrony in the temperature records. We discuss the potential driving mechanisms and the limitations in the interpretation of this trend, and we propose that increasing mutual dependency on external factors (also known as Moran’s effect) linked to rising global temperatures is the most likely driver of more homogeneous global growth dynamics.



中文翻译:

全球树木年轮记录显示同步增长空前的证据

人口之间时间一致性的变化可能会影响其稳定性,复原力和持久性,这仍然是气候变化的关键不确定性。最近的研究表明,在大陆范围内,人口之间的空间同步性不断增强,并将其与人为气候变化联系在一起。但是,缺乏长期和全球基准的空间同步性,对理解这些趋势的重要性提出了挑战。在这里,我们显示了过去50年中全球树木年轮数据库中树木年生长量的空间同步增长,这在各大洲,物种和环境条件下是一致的,这在过去的千年中是前所未有的。生长同步的增加与变暖趋势以及温度记录中潜在的同步增长相吻合。

更新日期:2020-10-28
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