The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

中文翻译：

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绘制伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区橡树（栎树）的当前和未来的分布图

伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区（KRI）的橡树（Quercus aegilops）约占70％的橡树林。除了作为各种地方性和迁徙物种的栖息地在生态上具有重要意义外，埃及栎森林还具有社会经济价值，例如用作牲畜，建筑材料，药品，木炭和薪柴的饲料。在KRI，由于人为威胁（例如，耕种转移，土地使用/土地覆盖变化，内战和森林管理政策不足），埃及沙棘（Q. aegilops）一直在退化。这些威胁可能随着气候变化而增加。在整个朝鲜民主主义人民共和国和伊拉克，关于埃及象鼻虫的当前和潜在未来地理分布的信息很少或根本不存在。这项研究的目的是（i）预测与环境变量和未来气候变化情景有关的物种当前和未来的栖息地适宜性分布（代表性浓度途径（RCP）2.6 2070和RCP8.5 2070）；（ii）确定控制KRI中物种分布的最重要的环境变量。通过使用MaxEnt（最大熵）算法，Q。aegilops的可用记录和环境变量来实现目标。该模型表明，在RCP2.6 2070和RCP8.5 2070气候变化情景下，埃及伊蚊的分布范围将分别减少3.6％（1849.7 km2）和3.16％（1627.1 km2）。相比之下，物种范围将分别扩大1.5％（777.0 km2）和1.7％（848.0 km2）。该物种的分布主要受年降水量控制。在未来的气候变化情景下，分布的重心将向更高的高度转移。结果表明：（i）到2070年，由于气候变化，KRI将失去该物种的合适栖息地范围，（ii）该物种更喜欢年降水量较高的较凉爽地区（高海拔）。随着气候变化，保护行动应集中在KRI的山区（例如，通过建立国家公园和保护区）。这些发现为以后的橡树林生态研究提供了有用的基准指导，