Approaching efficiency limits for silicon photovoltaics and impressive efficiency gains for new perovskite and perovskite silicon tandem solar cells trigger the question, which technology will be the most economically attractive option in the future. With a bottom-up approach we estimate the manufacturing costs of modules based on silicon, perovskite single junction, and perovskite silicon tandem solar cells. We determine levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) based on current costs, and because the perovskite technology is not readily available yet, project as well future LCOE considering the ongoing dynamic system cost reductions. Furthermore, we use an empirical link between perovskite single junction efficiency and resulting tandem efficiency, to estimate LCOE for both technologies for a given status of the perovskite technology. We find that if the perovskite technology matures to a level within the next 5-6 years where single junction module efficiency exceed 22% and tandem device efficiency 30% using low-cost industrial scale processes, while module lifetimes are comparable to silicon, perovskite silicon tandem devices are especially promising for residential applications, while in utility installations perovskite silicon tandems and perovskite singlejunction devices promise a cost advantage over pure silicon. LCOE reductions of 10%–20% compared to pure silicon photovoltaics are possible.

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电力生产成本最低的竞赛：硅、钙钛矿和串联太阳能电池的技术经济分析

接近硅光伏的效率极限以及新型钙钛矿和钙钛矿硅串联太阳能电池的显着效率提升引发了一个问题，即哪种技术将是未来最具经济吸引力的选择。通过自下而上的方法，我们估算了基于硅、钙钛矿单结和钙钛矿硅串联太阳能电池的模块的制造成本。我们根据当前成本确定平准化电力成本 (LCOE)，并且由于钙钛矿技术尚不可用，因此考虑到正在进行的动态系统成本降低，我们也预测了未来的 LCOE。此外，我们使用钙钛矿单结效率和由此产生的串联效率之间的经验联系来估计钙钛矿技术给定状态下两种技术的 LCOE。我们发现，如果钙钛矿技术在未来 5-6 年内成熟到使用低成本工业规模工艺的单结模块效率超过 22% 和串联器件效率超过 30% 的水平，而模块寿命可与硅、钙钛矿硅相媲美串联器件尤其适用于住宅应用，而在公用事业安装中，钙钛矿硅串联器件和钙钛矿单结器件有望比纯硅具有成本优势。与纯硅光伏相比，LCOE 降低 10%–20% 是可能的。钙钛矿硅串联器件尤其适用于住宅应用，而在公用设施中，钙钛矿硅串联器件和钙钛矿单结器件有望比纯硅具有成本优势。与纯硅光伏相比，LCOE 降低 10%–20% 是可能的。钙钛矿硅串联器件尤其适用于住宅应用，而在公用设施中，钙钛矿硅串联器件和钙钛矿单结器件有望比纯硅具有成本优势。与纯硅光伏相比，LCOE 降低 10%–20% 是可能的。