Aquaculture studies are often faced with data limitations when carrying out a quantitative risk assessment. Consolidating results from a literature search of potentially applicable methods, we propose a stepwise integrated methods approach that incorporates foundations from an antimicrobial resistance framework, the Office International Epizooties risk model, quantitative microbial risk assessment and infectious disease transmission models. We suggest that an initial ranking profile can be used to prioritize more in-depth qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, when data are available. The ranking method was done using a software that provides practical and interactive graphics for visualizing the impact of different factors and their respective weights on the likelihood of undesirable events (hazards) occurring. For this step, we illustrate how to include available data to obtain ranking results for decision makers using information from a recent sea lice freshwater tolerance literature review (Groner et al. 2019) that identified a gap in quantitative data. In our case example, for copepodid sea lice life stages, hypothetically changing how much experts believe that location and time are important factors revealed the most impact on the ranking for different degrees of freshwater tolerance evolution (no evolution, various partial options, known evolution). The factors ‘location’ and ‘time’, as well as ‘freshwater treatment’, have the greatest impact on the ranking for the preadult sea lice life-stages model. Results from our proposed ranking method can help to drive decisions around interpreting the various factors as they apply to mitigation planning and prioritizing those that should be included in further research. Additionally, we identify where quantitative data could be incorporated, as they become available, into a full risk assessment model with suggested models for a freshwater tolerance risk analysis framework.

中文翻译：

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基于现有信息评估水产养殖风险的逐步综合框架：鲑鱼养殖场海虱对淡水处理的耐受性案例

在进行定量风险评估时，水产养殖研究经常面临数据限制。整合潜在适用方法的文献搜索结果，我们提出了一种逐步整合的方法方法，该方法结合了抗菌素耐药性框架、Office International Epizooties 风险模型、定量微生物风险评估和传染病传播模型的基础。我们建议，当数据可用时，可以使用初始排名概况来确定更深入的定性和定量风险评估的优先级。排名方法是使用一种软件完成的，该软件提供实用和交互式图形，用于可视化不同因素及其各自权重对发生不良事件（危害）的可能性的影响。对于这一步，我们使用最近的海虱淡水耐受性文献综述（Groner 等人，2019 年）中确定的定量数据差距的信息说明了如何包括可用数据以获得决策者的排名结果。在我们的例子中，对于桡足类海虱的生命阶段，假设改变专家认为位置和时间是重要因素的程度，揭示了对不同程度的淡水耐受性进化的排名影响最大（无进化，各种部分选项，已知进化） . 因素“位置”和“时间”，以及“淡水处理”，对成年海虱生命阶段模型的排名影响最大。我们提出的排名方法的结果有助于推动围绕解释各种因素的决策，因为它们适用于缓解计划，并优先考虑应包含在进一步研究中的因素。此外，我们还确定了在哪些地方可以将定量数据合并到一个完整的风险评估模型中，并提供淡水耐受风险分析框架的建议模型。