Poverty alleviation for smallholders must consider the increasingly varied and intertwined impacts of climate change and globalization. This calls for a resilience perspective that includes eradication of poverty and resilience enhancement under extreme events and shocks. Applying the framework of development resilience, we constructed an agent-based model based on small farming households in the Amazon Delta region in Brazil, and we used it to identify pathways out of poverty and sources for resilience among these households. The model allows us to explore the nonlinearity and heterogeneous nature of the smallholder livelihood systems, including how different household characteristics and livelihood strategies contribute to divergent livelihood outcomes. Using a unique yet simple tracking method, we were able to show the stochastic dynamics of individual household livelihoods in the face of various shocks, and how these households move in and out of different states of poverty over time (i.e., extremely poor, chronic poor, and nonpoor). By comparing traits of households that ended up in different states, we showed the need for targeted interventions for alternative livelihood strategies and key resources improvement. Different from conventional poverty alleviation programs, our findings emphasize empowering smallholders with different livelihood options. This has practical implications in terms of identifying leverage points in smallholder livelihood systems (e.g., livelihood strategy, land resources) that government and other agencies can use to intervene more effectively for households to become prosperous.

中文翻译：

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从发展弹性角度看脱贫之路：基于代理的模拟

小农扶贫必须考虑气候变化和全球化日益多样化和相互交织的影响。这需要一种复原力视角，包括在极端事件和冲击下消除贫困和增强复原力。应用发展韧性框架，我们基于巴西亚马逊三角洲地区的小农户构建了一个基于代理的模型，并用它来确定这些家庭的脱贫途径和韧性来源。该模型使我们能够探索小农生计系统的非线性和异质性，包括不同的家庭特征和生计策略如何导致不同的生计结果。使用独特而简单的跟踪方法，我们能够展示面对各种冲击时个体家庭生计的随机动态，以及这些家庭如何随着时间的推移进入和摆脱不同的贫困状态（即，极度贫困、长期贫困和非贫困）。通过比较最终进入不同州的家庭的特征，我们表明需要针对替代生计策略和关键资源改进进行有针对性的干预。与传统的扶贫计划不同，我们的研究结果强调赋予小农户不同的生计选择。这在确定小农生计系统（例如生计战略、土地资源）中的杠杆点方面具有实际意义，政府和其他机构可以使用这些杠杆点来更有效地进行干预，使家庭变得富裕。