Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT ‐ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action,Meteorological Applications

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Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT ‐ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1959
Victoria L. Boult ₁ , Dagmawi T. Asfaw ₂ , Matthew Young ₁ , Ross Maidment ₃ , Emmah Mwangi ₄ , Maurine Ambani ₄ , Shamton Waruru ₅ , George Otieno ₆ , Martin C. Todd ₇ , Emily Black ₁

Affiliation

Reliable information on the likelihood of drought is of crucial importance in agricultural planning and humanitarian decision-making. Acting based upon probabilistic forecasts of drought, rather than responding to prevailing drought conditions, has the potential to save lives, livelihoods and resources, but is accompanied by the risk of acting in vain. The suitability of a novel forecasting tool is assessed in the present paper in terms of its ability to provide skilful information of the likeli hood of drought impacts on crops and pasture within a timeframe that allows for anticipatory action. The Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data—AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT-ALERT) tool provides forecasts of seasonal mean soil moisture and the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI). TAMSAT-ALERT metrics were found to be strongly correlated with pasture availability and maize yield in Kenya and provided skilful forecasts early in key seasons, allowing sufficient time for preparatory actions. Incorporating TAMSAT-ALERT forecasts in a layered approach, with actions triggered by spatiotemporally varying triggers and fundamentally informed by humanitarian actors, will provide reliable information on the likelihood of drought, ultimately mitigating food insecurity.

中文翻译：

评估和验证 TAMSAT ‐ALERT 土壤水分和 WRSI 用于抗旱行动

关于干旱可能性的可靠信息对于农业规划和人道主义决策至关重要。根据干旱的概率预测采取行动，而不是对普遍的干旱状况做出反应，有可能挽救生命、生计和资源，但也伴随着徒劳无功的风险。本文评估了一种新型预测工具的适用性，该工具能够提供有关干旱对作物和牧场影响的可能性在允许采取预期行动的时间范围内的熟练信息。使用卫星数据的热带气象学应用——农业预警系统 (TAMSAT-ALERT) 工具提供季节性平均土壤水分和需水满意度指数 (WRSI) 的预测。发现 TAMSAT-ALERT 指标与肯尼亚的牧场供应量和玉米产量密切相关，并在关键季节的早期提供了巧妙的预测，为准备行动留出了足够的时间。以分层方法结合 TAMSAT-ALERT 预测，行动由时空变化的触发因素触发并由人道主义行动者提供基本信息，将提供关于干旱可能性的可靠信息，最终减轻粮食不安全。

更新日期：2020-09-01

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