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Transformative scenarios for biodiversity conservation and sustainability
Conservation Letters ( IF 7.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-21 , DOI: 10.1111/conl.12772
Carolyn Lundquist 1, 2 , Shizuka Hashimoto 3 , Machteld Schoolenberg 4 ,
Affiliation  

Increasing evidence shows that fundamental societal changes are essential to halt biodiversity loss. We therefore optimistically support the paper by Otero et al. (2020), which assesses how international biodiversity and sustainability policies frame economic growth in their conservation goals. Otero et al. (2020) highlight the work of the former IPBES expert group (now task force) on Scenarios and Models11 https://ipbes.net/scenarios-models , and we take this opportunity to clarify our objectives (as introduced in Rosa et al. 2017), which were partially misinterpreted in the article.

The work plan of our task force builds upon recommendations of the IPBES methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of nature and nature's contributions to people (Ferrier et al. 2016). Recognizing the urgent need to inform the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment, we first catalyzed the "BES‐SIM” collaboration of 17 comparative modeling exercises of biodiversity and ecosystem services based on the SSP‐RCP scenario framework (Kim et al., 2018). However, our longer term objective is to catalyze co‐development of the next generation of nature‐focused scenarios. Otero et al. (2020) mention our initial step on this pathway, where we utilized participatory approaches to co‐design a suite of desirable futures for nature with a diverse subset of global stakeholders, including indigenous and local communities (Lundquist et al., 2017). These future visions were then used to catalyze the construction of the transformative Nature Futures Framework, a platform for scenario development that can provide for a diversity of human values and perspectives on nature and nature's contributions to people (Pereira et al., 2020).

Otero et al. (2020) misinterpret that this new scenarios framework is linked to the SSP‐RCP scenario framework. Rather, the Nature Futures Framework is not limited to solely one "SSP0" as suggested by Otero et al. (2020). Instead, the Framework allows for the expression of multiple possible "positive" future pathways in terms of sustainability, as shown through the diversity of future visioning and scenario exercises that we have hosted with global and regional stakeholder groups (Pereira et al., 2020). Diverse economic pathways are just one component that we are integrating within this new scenarios framework, which are underpinned by human relationships with nature. These intrinsic ("Nature for Nature"), instrumental ("Nature for Society"), and relational ("Nature as Culture") values for nature (see Supporting Information) influence how positive future visions vary across the diversity of local and regional, societal, cultural, technological, policy, and governance contexts.

In summary, we agree that a transformative scenarios framework is required that recognizes the diversity of human values and relationships with nature, and how nature contributes both directly and indirectly to good quality of life. Human relationships with nature are what motivate society to act to bend the curve of biodiversity loss. Our task force has initiated the development of a novel framework that can build upon these relationships to diversify the range of sustainable policy and management options. This framework will inform new targets and indicators of human and nature well‐being for the post‐2020 framework, and ultimately enable transformative change.



中文翻译:

生物多样性保护和可持续性的变革性设想

越来越多的证据表明,基本的社会变革对于制止生物多样性的丧失至关重要。因此,我们乐观地支持Otero等人的论文。(2020年),该报告评估了国际生物多样性和可持续性政策如何在其保护目标中体现经济增长。Otero等。(2020)重点介绍了前IPBES方案和模型专家组(现为工作组)的工作11 https://ipbes.net/scenarios-models,我们借此机会澄清了我们的目标(如Rosa等人2017年所介绍的那样),该目标在本文中有部分被误解了。

我们工作队的工作计划以IPBES方法论评估报告中有关自然界情景和模型以及自然界对人类的贡献的建议为基础(Ferrier等,2016)。认识到迫切需要为2019年IPBES全球评估提供信息的基础上,我们首先基于SSP-RCP情景框架,催化了17个生物多样性和生态系统服务比较建模练习的“ BES-SIM”协作(Kim等人,2018年)。 ,我们的长期目标是促进下一代以自然为重点的场景的共同发展。Otero等人(2020年))提到我们在这条道路上迈出的第一步,我们利用参与性方法与包括土著和地方社区在内的全球利益相关者的不同子集共同设计了一套理想的大自然前景(Lundquist等人,2017年)。这些未来的愿景随后被用来促进变革性的《自然未来框架》的构建,该框架是一种情景发展平台,可以提供多种人类价值观和对自然以及自然对人类的贡献的观点(Pereira et al。,2020)。

Otero等。(2020)误认为该新方案框架与SSP-RCP方案框架相关。相反,自然期货框架不仅仅限于Otero等人建议的一个“ SSP0”。(2020年)。取而代之的是,该框架允许在可持续性方面表达多种可能的“积极”未来路径,正如我们与全球和区域利益相关者团体共同主办的未来愿景和情景演练的多样性所表明的那样(Pereira等,2020)。)。多样化的经济途径只是我们正在这个新情景框架中整合的一个组成部分,而这一新框架以人与自然的关系为基础。这些自然的内在价值(“自然为自然”),工具性(“自然为社会”)和关系性(“自然为文化”)价值(请参阅支持信息)影响着积极的未来愿景如何在地方和区域多样性中变化,社会,文化,技术,政策和治理环境。

总而言之,我们同意需要一个变革性的情景框架,该框架应认识到人类价值观的多样性以及与自然的关系,以及自然如何直接或间接地为改善生活质量做出贡献。人与自然的关系是促使社会采取行动改变生物多样性丧失曲线的动力。我们的工作队已开始开发一种新颖的框架,该框架可以建立在这些关系的基础上,以使可持续政策和管理选择的范围多样化。该框架将为2020年后框架的人类与自然福祉的新目标和指标提供信息,并最终实现变革。

更新日期:2020-10-21
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