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Effects of travel frequency on the persistence of mosquito-borne diseases
Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems-Series B ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-25 , DOI: 10.3934/dcdsb.2020119
Xianyun Chen , , Daozhou Gao

Travel frequency of people varies widely with occupation, age, gender, ethnicity, income, climate and other factors. Meanwhile, the distribution of the numbers of times people in different regions or with different travel behaviors bitten by mosquitoes may be nonuniform. To reflect these two heterogeneities, we develop a multipatch model to study the impact of travel frequency and human biting rate on the spatial spread of mosquito-borne diseases. The human population in each patch is divided into four classes: susceptible unfrequent, infectious unfrequent, susceptible frequent, and infectious frequent. The basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ is defined. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $ \mathcal{R}_0\leq 1 $, and there is a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable if $ \mathcal{R}_0>1 $. A more detailed study is conducted on the single patch model. We use analytical and numerical methods to demonstrate that the model without considering the difference of humans in travel frequency mostly underestimates the risk of infection. Numerical simulations suggest that the greater the difference in travel frequency, the larger the underestimate of the transmission potential. In addition, the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ may decreasingly, or increasingly, or nonmonotonically vary when more people travel frequently.

中文翻译:

行进频率对蚊媒疾病持续性的影响

人们的出行频率随职业,年龄,性别,种族,收入,气候和其他因素而变化很大。同时,被蚊子叮咬的不同地区或具有不同旅行行为的人的次数分布可能不均匀。为了反映这两种异质性,我们开发了一个多补丁模型来研究行进频率和人的叮咬率对蚊媒疾病空间传播的影响。每个斑块中的人口分为四类:易感性不频繁,传染性不频繁,易感性频繁和传染性频繁。定义了基本再现编号$ \ mathcal {R} _0 $。结果表明,如果$ \ mathcal {R} _0 \ leq 1 $,无病平衡在全局渐近稳定,如果$ \ mathcal {R} _0> 1 $,则存在一个全局渐近稳定的独特地方病平衡。对单补丁模型进行了更详细的研究。我们使用分析和数值方法来证明,在不考虑人类出行频率差异的情况下,该模型大部分会低估感染的风险。数值模拟表明,行进频率的差异越大,对传输电势的低估就越大。此外,当更多的人频繁旅行时,基本繁殖数$ \ mathcal {R} _0 $可能会减少或增加,或者非单调变化。我们使用分析和数值方法来证明,在不考虑人类出行频率差异的情况下,该模型大部分会低估感染的风险。数值模拟表明,行进频率的差异越大,对传输电势的低估就越大。此外,当更多的人频繁旅行时,基本繁殖数$ \ mathcal {R} _0 $可能会减少或增加,或者非单调变化。我们使用分析和数值方法来证明,在不考虑人类出行频率差异的情况下,该模型大部分会低估感染的风险。数值模拟表明,行进频率的差异越大,对传输电势的低估就越大。此外,当更多的人频繁旅行时,基本繁殖数$ \ mathcal {R} _0 $可能会减少或增加,或者非单调变化。
更新日期:2020-03-25
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