The use of seasonal forecast has been demonstrated as a good option to reduce the effects of climate variability in sub-Saharan African countries. However, its use, benefits and interests may be different depending on gender. This paper aims at analyzing the gender differential impact of the use of seasonal forecast on the main crop yields (rice, maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut) and farm income in Senegal. We collected data from 1481 farmers (44% women) in four regions of Senegal. We applied the counterfactual outcomes framework of modern evaluation theory to estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) of the use of the seasonal forecast on crop yield and farm income. The results showed a significant impact of the use of the seasonal forecast (SF) in the main crop yields and the agricultural income for farmers in Senegal. This impact varies according to the sex and the type of the crops. The users (men and women) of the seasonal forecast gained on average 158 kg/ha and 140 kg/ha more yield than the non-users, respectively, for millet and rice crops. The impact of the use of SF is greater for men on millet (202.7 kg/ha vs. 16.7 kg/ha) and rice (321.33 kg/ha vs. −25.3 kg/ha). However, it is greater for women on maize (210 kg/ha vs. −105 kg/ha). Potential users of seasonal forecast had also a positive and significant impact of 41$ per ha on the income. The additional income is more important for men (56$) than women (11$). These findings suggest that the use of seasonal forecast increases the productivity of rural communities and affects men and women differently. The access to and use of SF should therefore be widely promoted among farmers’ organizations; women’s associations should be particularly targeted.

中文翻译：

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使用季节性预测作为适应策略：塞内加尔性别差异对产量和收入的影响

事实证明，使用季节性预报是减少撒哈拉以南非洲国家气候变化影响的一个很好的选择。但是，根据性别，其使用，利益和利益可能有所不同。本文旨在分析使用季节预报对塞内加尔主要农作物产量（稻米，玉米，高粱，小米和花生）和农场收入的性别差异影响。我们收集了来自塞内加尔四个地区的1481位农民（44％为女性）的数据。我们应用现代评估理论的反事实结果框架来估计使用季节性预测对作物产量和农场收入的局部平均治疗效果（LATE）。结果表明，使用季节预报（SF）对塞内加尔主要农作物产量和农民农业收入具有重大影响。这种影响会因农作物的性别和类型而异。对于小米和稻米作物，季节预报的使用者（男人和女人）平均比非使用者分别增加158 kg / ha和140 kg / ha。男性使用SF对小米（202.7 kg / ha vs. 16.7 kg / ha）和大米（321.33 kg / ha vs.-25.3 kg / ha）的影响更大。但是，使用玉米的女性更大（210公斤/公顷对-105公斤/公顷）。季节性预报的潜在用户也对每公顷收入有$ 41的积极而重大的影响。男性（56美元）比女性（11美元）更重要。这些发现表明，使用季节性预报可以提高农村社区的生产力，并以不同的方式影响男人和女人。因此，应当在农民组织中广泛促进对SF的获取和使用。