When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.

中文翻译：

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使用不精确概率分析气候变化对海上风力发电机疲劳寿命的影响

通常，在讨论风能与气候变化的关系时，强调风能减少温室气体排放的潜力。因此，分析了风能对气候变化的影响。但是，另一个方向呢？气候变化对风能有什么影响？最近，已经分析了全球陆地静止的逆转，即最近十年全球风速的增加，对风能生产的影响。当然，有关能源生产潜在变化的知识对于计划未来的能源供应至关重要。尽管如此，至少同样重要的是作用在风力涡轮机上的负载的影响。由于较高的风速而增加的负载可能会缩短风力涡轮机的寿命并产生更高的成本。而且，特别是对于已经存在的涡轮机，它甚至可能会影响结构的可靠性。由于气候变化对风力涡轮机负载的影响尚不清楚，因此在这项工作中将对其进行更详细的研究。为此，使用用于预测风速和空气温度的变化及其不确定性的不同现有模型来预测示例性海上风力涡轮机所暴露的环境条件。随后，对于该涡轮机，针对不同的预测模型计算使用寿命疲劳损伤。结果表明，存在寿命疲劳损伤的预期变化，但与疲劳损伤计算中的其他不确定性相比，该变化相对较小。用于预测风速和空气温度的变化的不同现有模型及其不确定性用于预测示例性海上风力涡轮机所处的环境条件。随后，对于该涡轮机，针对不同的预测模型计算使用寿命疲劳损伤。结果表明，存在寿命疲劳损伤的预期变化，但与疲劳损伤计算中的其他不确定性相比，该变化相对较小。用于预测风速和空气温度的变化的不同现有模型及其不确定性用于预测示例性海上风力涡轮机所处的环境条件。随后，对于该涡轮机，针对不同的预测模型计算使用寿命疲劳损伤。结果表明，存在寿命疲劳损伤的预期变化，但与疲劳损伤计算中的其他不确定性相比，该变化相对较小。