Abstract The Failure Forecast Method (FFM) was introduced as an empirical model for forecasting catastrophic material failures related to natural hazards, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, with mixed success. During the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, the draining of the summit magma reservoir into the Lower East Rift Zone resulted in the formation of a new caldera at the summit. I tested the applicability of the FFM to caldera collapse by analyzing the cyclical earthquake swarms and ground deformation that occurred between 62 sudden major caldera collapse events. The progression of both the cumulative moment release of the cyclical earthquakes and the GNSS displacement show a major change in mid-June. In late May through early June, the progression of the parameters is consistent with strain localization or creep progression related to the development or activation of the ring fault system. From late June until the end of the eruption, parameter progression is roughly steady with initial accelerating increases in cumulative moment and displacement that shift to approximately linear progression. Analysis of repeating earthquake families in the cyclical swarms showed that the behavior of the repeaters was consistent with that of the cyclical swarms as a whole and suggested that each family undergoes its own progression of activation to termination. While the FFM analysis identified the system change in mid-June, it did not demonstrate an ability to forecast collapse events or the end of the eruption.

中文翻译：

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材料失效和火山口坍塌：来自 2018 年基拉韦厄火山喷发的见解

摘要 故障预测方法 (FFM) 被引入作为一种经验模型，用于预测与自然灾害（如滑坡和火山爆发）相关的灾难性材料故障，但结果喜忧参半。在 2018 年夏威夷基拉韦厄火山喷发期间，山顶岩浆库排入下东裂谷带，导致山顶形成了一个新的火山口。我通过分析 62 次突然的主要火山口坍塌事件之间发生的周期性地震群和地面变形来测试 FFM 对火山口坍塌的适用性。6 月中旬，周期性地震的累积力矩释放和 GNSS 位移的进展都显示出重大变化。从五月下旬到六月上旬，参数的进展与与环断层系统的发展或激活相关的应变局部化或蠕变进展一致。从 6 月下旬到喷发结束，参数进展大致稳定，累积力矩和位移的初始加速增加转变为近似线性进展。对周期性群中重复地震家族的分析表明，重复者的行为与整个周期性群的行为一致，表明每个家族都经历了自己的激活和终止过程。虽然 FFM 分析确定了 6 月中旬的系统变化，但它没有展示预测坍塌事件或喷发结束的​​能力。从 6 月下旬到喷发结束，参数进展大致稳定，累积力矩和位移的初始加速增加转变为近似线性进展。对周期性群中重复地震家族的分析表明，重复者的行为与整个周期性群的行为一致，表明每个家族都经历了自己的激活和终止过程。虽然 FFM 分析确定了 6 月中旬的系统变化，但它没有展示预测坍塌事件或喷发结束的​​能力。从 6 月下旬到喷发结束，参数进展大致稳定，累积力矩和位移的初始加速增加转变为近似线性进展。对周期性群中重复地震家族的分析表明，重复者的行为与整个周期性群的行为一致，表明每个家族都经历了自己的激活和终止过程。虽然 FFM 分析确定了 6 月中旬的系统变化，但它没有展示预测坍塌事件或喷发结束的​​能力。对周期性群中重复地震家族的分析表明，重复者的行为与整个周期性群的行为一致，表明每个家族都经历了自己的激活和终止过程。虽然 FFM 分析确定了 6 月中旬的系统变化，但它没有展示预测坍塌事件或喷发结束的​​能力。对周期性群中重复地震家族的分析表明，重复者的行为与整个周期性群的行为一致，表明每个家族都经历了自己的激活和终止过程。虽然 FFM 分析确定了 6 月中旬的系统变化，但它没有展示预测坍塌事件或喷发结束的​​能力。