Abstract Climate change requires Mediterranean farms to maintain adequate profitability, while adapting to the increase in water needs of crops, the growth of water demand for non-agricultural users and the reduction of resource availability. We use discrete stochastic programming models of three Italian farming areas to simulate the adaptation paths of their farm types to changes in yields and irrigation needs of crops that climate change could generate at 2030. This is done in a context of progressive decrease of water availability. We condense the adaptation choices attributed by the optimization process to the farm types by means of indicators of value produced per water cubic meter and per hectare. We use those indicators in a quadratic regression analysis to explain the change in the hourly wages of family labour, which represents the farm resources’ profitability. The examination of the resulting elasticity indices outlines the adaptation paths impact on farm profitability. This integrated analysis of optimization models and econometric regression shows that the core of Italian cow milk production, based on medium-high intensity forage systems, adapts better. Instead, available technologies and structural features provide much narrower margins to livestock farms based on intensive forage production and, conversely, to more extensive livestock systems. Crop farms adapt by reducing labour use in less profitable activities, which boosts family hourly wages but increases unemployment. Furthermore, the surface of some crops can be expanded because their cycle takes place in months in which the availability of water decreases less and their irrigation requirement increases less; however, the low productivity of these crops does not allow to increase wages for family labour. The results on farms overall profitability derive from an integrated analysis of changes in water resources productivity, soil and labor. Mathematical programming outlines the adaptation paths that maximize farming incomes; the econometric analysis indicates whether those paths support profitability, favouring farm economic sustainability.

中文翻译：

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意大利主要农业区适应气候变化的途径：支持农场盈利能力的有效性和局限性

摘要 气候变化要求地中海农场保持足够的盈利能力，同时适应作物用水需求的增加、非农业用户用水需求的增长和资源可用性的减少。我们使用三个意大利农业区的离散随机规划模型来模拟其农场类型对 2030 年气候变化可能产生的作物产量和灌溉需求变化的适应路径。这是在可用水量逐渐减少的背景下完成的。我们通过每立方米和每公顷生产的价值指标，将优化过程归因于农场类型的适应选择浓缩。我们在二次回归分析中使用这些指标来解释家庭劳动力小时工资的变化，这代表了农场资源的盈利能力。对由此产生的弹性指数的检查概述了适应路径对农场盈利能力的影响。这种优化模型和计量经济学回归的综合分析表明，基于中高强度饲草系统的意大利牛奶生产的核心适应性更好。相反，可用的技术和结构特征为基于集约化饲草生产的畜牧场提供了更窄的利润，相反，为更广泛的畜牧系统提供了更窄的利润。农作物农场通过减少在利润较低的活动中使用劳动力来进行适应，这会提高家庭的时薪，但会增加失业率。此外，某些作物的表面可以扩大，因为它们的循环以月为单位进行，在此期间，可用水量减少较少，灌溉需求增加较少；然而，这些作物的低生产力不允许增加家庭劳动力的工资。农场整体盈利能力的结果来自对水资源生产力、土壤和劳动力变化的综合分析。数学规划概述了使农业收入最大化的适应路径；计量经济学分析表明这些路径是否支持盈利，有利于农业经济的可持续性。土壤和劳动力。数学规划概述了使农业收入最大化的适应路径；计量经济学分析表明这些路径是否支持盈利，有利于农业经济的可持续性。土壤和劳动力。数学规划概述了使农业收入最大化的适应路径；计量经济学分析表明这些路径是否支持盈利，有利于农业经济的可持续性。