Abstract Understanding the evolution characteristics of regional drought is crucial to the sustainable development of ecology and social economy, especially in typical water-limited area. However, the exploring the spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought in the Loess Plateau (LP) under global warming and regional vegetation restoration project is still insufficient, and its potential causes remain unresolved. To this end, in this study, the standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) was constructed based on the root soil moisture data of the Global Land Data Assimilation System, and their suitability in monitoring agricultural drought in the LP was evaluated. In addition, it is proposed to describe the spatial-temporal dynamics of agricultural drought with the migration of drought centroid, and to further analyze the influencing factors of agricultural drought. Results show that: (1) the response time of agricultural to meteorological drought in the LP is approximately 9 months, mainly with existence of moderate drought and drought coverage nearly 10–25%, and the probability of exceptionally drought in a short time is low; (2) from 1982 to 2015, the spatial distribution of drought frequency in the LP gradually increased from southeast to northwest, and the agricultural drought in the northwest has the characteristics of frequent occurrence, short duration and weak intensity, with no significant trend of longer duration and weaker intensity; (3) among the 7 droughts screened out by the Drought migration model, the migration direction of drought centroids are mainly east–west, concentrated in the middle of the LP. In the early and late stage of drought, drought migration trends to have a longer path and faster speed, while in the middle it is shorter and denser; (4) significant increasing precipitation (p

中文翻译：

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变化环境下黄土高原农业干旱时空动态特征及潜在影响因素

摘要 了解区域干旱演变特征对生态和社会经济的可持续发展至关重要，特别是在典型的缺水地区。然而，对全球变暖和区域植被恢复工程下黄土高原农业干旱时空动态的探索还不够，其潜在原因仍未得到解决。为此，本研究基于全球土地数据同化系统的根部土壤水分数据构建了标准化土壤水分指数（SSMI），并对其在LP农业干旱监测中的适用性进行了评估。此外，还提出了随着干旱质心的迁移来描述农业干旱的时空动态，并进一步分析农业干旱的影响因素。结果表明：（1）LP农业对气象干旱的响应时间约为9个月，以存在中度干旱为主，干旱覆盖率接近10%～25%，短时间内出现异常干旱的概率较低。 ; (2) 1982-2015年，LP干旱频次空间分布由东南向西北逐渐增加，西北农业干旱具有发生频繁、持续时间短、强度弱的特点，无明显变长趋势。持续时间和强度较弱；(3)干旱迁移模型筛选出的7个干旱中，干旱质心的迁移方向主要是东西向，集中在LP中部。在干旱的早期和晚期，干旱迁移的路径更长、速度更快，而中期则更短、更密集；(4) 降水显着增加（p