Glacial and paraglacial processes have a major influence on rock slope stability in alpine environments. Slope deglaciation causes debuttressing, stress and hydro-mechanical perturbations that promote progressive slope failure and the development of slow rock slope deformation possibly evolving until catastrophic failure. Paraglacial rock slope failures can develop soon after or thousands of years after deglaciation, and can creep slowly accelerating until catastrophic failure or nucleate sudden rockslides. The roles of topography, rock properties and deglaciation processes in promoting the different styles of paraglacial rock slope failure are still elusive. Nevertheless, their comprehensive understanding is crucial to manage future geohazards in modern paraglacial settings affected by ongoing climate change. We simulate the different modes and timing of paraglacial slope failures in an integrated numerical modelling approach that couples realistic deglaciation histories derived by modelling of ice dynamics to 2D time-dependent simulations of progressive failure processes. We performed a parametric study to assess the effects of initial ice thickness, deglaciation rate, rock-slope strength and valley shape on the mechanisms and timing of slope response to deglaciation. Our results allow constraining the range of conditions in which rapid failures or delayed slow deformations occur, which we compare to natural Alpine case studies. The melting of thicker glaciers is linked to shallower rockslides daylighting at higher elevation, with a shorter response time. More pronounced glacial morphologies influences slope lifecycle and favour the development of shallower, suspended rockslides. Weaker slopes and faster deglaciations produce to faster slope responses. In a risk-reduction perspective, we expect rockslide differentiation in valleys showing a strong glacial imprint, buried below thick ice sheets during glaciation.

中文翻译：

---

冰缘岩坡变形：突然反应还是延迟反应？综合数值建模方法的见解

冰川和副冰河过程对高山环境中的岩石边坡稳定性有重大影响。斜坡冰川消融导致初应力、应力和水力机械扰动，促进渐进式斜坡破坏和缓慢的岩石斜坡变形的发展，可能会演变成灾难性破坏。冰川消融后不久或数千年之后，冰河边岩坡就会发生崩塌，并且会缓慢加速蠕变，直到发生灾难性的崩塌或使突然的岩石滑坡成核。地形、岩石性质和冰川消融过程在促进不同类型的冰河边岩边坡破坏中的作用仍然难以捉摸。尽管如此，他们的全面理解对于在受持续气候变化影响的现代冰河冰川环境中管理未来的地质灾害至关重要。我们在综合数值建模方法中模拟了冰河边斜坡破坏的不同模式和时间，该方法将通过冰动力学建模得出的真实冰川消融历史与渐进式破坏过程的 2D 时间相关模拟相结合。我们进行了一项参数研究，以评估初始冰厚度、冰消速率、岩石斜坡强度和山谷形状对斜坡对冰消作用的响应机制和时间的影响。我们的结果允许限制发生快速失效或延迟缓慢变形的条件范围，我们将其与自然阿尔卑斯案例研究进行比较。较厚冰川的融化与较浅的岩崩在较高海拔处采光有关，响应时间较短。更明显的冰川形态影响斜坡生命周期并有利于较浅的悬浮岩滑坡的发展。较弱的斜坡和较快的冰川消融会产生较快的斜坡响应。从降低风险的角度来看，我们预计山谷中的岩石滑坡分化显示出强烈的冰川印记，在冰川作用期间被埋在厚冰盖下。