Abstract—

The quantitative and qualitative study of wetland ecosystems is the main base for their sustainable use. In arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran, importance of wetlands is more obvious. Providing new information of changes in wetlands during several decades help us finding the reasons of alteration and making programs and policies. One of the most effective techniques in this field is remote sensing. Choghakhor international wetland, one of the most important wetlands in Iran. In this study, satellite images of MSS, TM, ETM +, and OLI were used during 1976–2017 to identify changes within the wetland. Also, the distribution of aquatic plants has been evaluated with NDVI index as an environmental indicator due to their key role on these aquatic ecosystems. After mapping the changes in wetland patterns over times, a cellular automata model (CA) was used to simulate changes up to the 2030s. The results of the time processing map data of the maps show the gradual decrease of the area (water body) of the wetland in the spring and more in the autumn season, which is more evident in recent years. However, the aquatic plants of the wetland in recent years has been. In general, three life periods for the Choghakhor wetland could be defined: “natural period”, “developmental period” and “dehydration period”. According to the CA model, the water body of the wetland shows a decreasing trend by 2030. On the other hand, aquatic plants growing in the wetland and its surroundings, which could be due to the high nutrient and organic load in future. Therefore, having an integrated strategy and program to improve the status of this unique ecosystem is necessary more than ever.

中文翻译：

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利用Landsat影像和元胞自动机-马尔可夫模型检测和预测Choghakhor国际湿地的水体和水生植物覆盖变化

摘要-

湿地生态系统的定量和定性研究是其可持续利用的主要基础。在伊朗这样的干旱和半干旱地区，湿地的重要性更加明显。提供几十年来湿地变化的新信息有助于我们发现变化的原因并制定计划和政策。该领域最有效的技术之一是遥感。Choghakhor国际湿地是伊朗最重要的湿地之一。在这项研究中，MSS，TM，ETM +和OLI的卫星图像在1976-2017年期间用于识别湿地内的变化。此外，由于NDVI指数在水生植物在这些水生生态系统中的关键作用，因此已经对其进行了评估。在绘制湿地格局随时间的变化之后，细胞自动机模型（CA）用于模拟直到2030年代的变化。这些地图的时间处理地图数据的结果表明，春季湿地的面积（水体）逐渐减少，而秋季则逐渐增加，这在最近几年更为明显。但是，近年来湿地的水生植物已经存在。通常，可以定义Choghakhor湿地的三个生命期：“自然期”，“发育期”和“脱水期”。根据CA模型，到2030年，湿地的水体呈下降趋势。另一方面，在湿地及其周围地区生长的水生植物，可能是由于未来的高养分和有机负荷所致。因此，