Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa with 35 million tropical livestock units. The livestock system relies on natural open grazing which is affected by frequent droughts. However, little research exists that studies the suitability of the biophysical environment for fodder production and the risks due to climate change. The main objectives of the study are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa production in Ethiopia and to assess the extent of irrigation requirements for alfalfa growing under the adverse climate change projections. The impact of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa was evaluated using projected changes in rainfall and temperature based on three global circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC5). A multi-criteria evaluation in GIS that uses biophysical, climatic and topography factors was applied to identify the suitable land. The highly suitable area under current climate scenarios covered ~472,000 km², while moderately suitable and marginally suitable covered ~397,000 km² and ~16,200 km², respectively. The projected climate alters the suitable land for fodder production across Ethiopia. Expansion of suitable land occurred in the highlands where climate scenarios predict an increase in temperature and precipitation. Dryland regions showed a rainfall deficit for the three model projections. The research provides guidelines for growing alfalfa in Ethiopia considering ecological and climatic variability.

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评估土地适宜性和气候变化对埃塞俄比亚苜蓿（苜蓿）的生产的影响

埃塞俄比亚拥有非洲最大的牲畜种群，拥有3500万热带牲畜单位。牲畜系统依靠自然干旱放牧，而干旱经常受到影响。但是，很少有研究研究生物物理环境对饲料生产的适应性以及气候变化带来的风险。这项研究的主要目的是评估气候变化对土地在埃塞俄比亚生产苜蓿的适宜性的潜在影响，并评估在不利的气候变化预测下苜蓿种植对灌溉的需求程度。基于三种全球循环模型（CCSM4，HadGEM2-AO和MIROC5），使用预估的降雨量和温度变化评估了气候变化对苜蓿土地适宜性的影响。利用生物物理，气候和地形因素在GIS中进行的多标准评估被应用于确定合适的土地。在当前气候情景下高度合适的区域约472,000公里²，适度适合和略微适合的范围分别为〜397,000 km ²和〜16,200 km ²。预计的气候将改变整个埃塞俄比亚的饲料生产用地。高地发生了合适的土地扩张，在高海拔地区，气候情景预测气温和降水会增加。干旱地区的三个模型预测都显示出降雨不足。考虑到生态和气候变化，该研究为在埃塞俄比亚种植苜蓿提供了指南。