Feral invasive mammals challenge management strategies worldwide including the feral horse (Equus caballus) population in Tornquist Park, Argentina. In this study, I constructed population matrix models using demography data collected between 1995 and 2002. I validated the models with independent counts from 2008 to 2016. I individually identified feral horses and recorded them as I walked a fixed path that covered 20 km². I performed an elasticity analysis to estimate the influence of the demographic parameters on population growth rate. In addition, I explored whether body condition score could be a proxy for carrying capacity. Model projections with the highest values of fecundity and survival exhibited by females of all ages during 1995–2002 fit the counts from 2008 to 2016, when growth rate was moderate (λ = 1.10), very well. Elasticity of adult female survival (0.54) was 4 times higher than for fecundity and survival of all other ages. Body condition of adult females at the end of winter, 2012–2013, after reductions in density, was improved compared with 2001–2002 when the population approached carrying capacity. The validated population model together with body condition score could allow managers to take more informed decisions when planning the control of feral horses in Tornquist Park. This approach could also be applied to other small, closed, feral horse populations and other large-mammal populations. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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野马种群模型和身体状况：阿根廷 Tornquist 公园的有用管理工具？

野性入侵哺乳动物挑战着世界范围内的管理策略，包括阿根廷 Tornquist 公园的野马 ( Equus caballus ) 种群。在这项研究中，我通过构建1995年至2002年间收集的人口学资料我验证具有独立计数模型从2008年到2016年我个人识别野生马和记录他们为我边走边说，覆盖20km的固定路径布局矩阵模型². 我进行了弹性分析来估计人口参数对人口增长率的影响。此外，我探讨了身体状况评分是否可以代表承载能力。1995 年至 2002 年期间所有年龄段女性表现出的最高繁殖力和存活率值的模型预测与 2008 年至 2016 年的计数非常吻合，当时增长率适中（λ = 1.10）。成年女性存活率的弹性 (0.54) 是所有其他年龄段的生育力和存活率的 4 倍。2012-2013 年冬末成年雌性在密度降低后的身体状况与 2001-2002 年人口接近承载能力时相比有所改善。经过验证的种群模型和身体状况评分可以让管理人员在计划控制 Tornquist 公园的野马时做出更明智的决定。这种方法也可以应用于其他小型、封闭的野马种群和其他大型哺乳动物种群。© 2020 野生动物协会。