The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has experienced rapid urbanization processes for nearly 40 years. Due to the high population densities and developed industries, the region will continue to expand. To explore the impact of future land-use change on land ecological security, a regional ecological security early warning (ESEW) was spatially constructed by overlaying the simulated future built-up land with the current ecological security partition zones. The results showed that (1) the habitat quality was severely degraded in Pearl River Delta and the spatial differentiation was obvious, showing low habitat quality in the middle and high quality in the east and west; (2) the landscape ecological risk showed an increasing trend and the area of higher risk increased from 0.8 % to 7.4 % of the total area of the Pearl River Delta from 1985 to 2015; (3) each ecological security partition zone changed in different directions, and zone V changed from a single core to a multicore; (4) in the scenario of coordinated development under a balanced environment and economy, an equilibrium of each early warning level of ecological security will be reached. These results provide a reference for land-use planning, urban master planning and management decisions.

珠江三角洲（PRD）经历了近40年的快速城市化进程。由于人口密度高和工业发达，该地区将继续扩大。为了探索未来土地利用变化对土地生态安全的影响，通过将模拟的未来建成土地与当前的生态安全分区覆盖，在空间上构建了区域生态安全预警（ESEW）。结果表明：（1）珠江三角洲生境质量严重退化，空间分异明显，中西部生境质量较差，东西部质量较高。（2）1985年至2015年，景观生态风险呈上升趋势，高风险区域从珠江三角洲总面积的0.8％增加到7.4％; （3）每个生态安全分区区域朝不同的方向变化，区域V从单核变为多核；（4）在环境与经济协调发展的情况下，各个生态安全预警水平将达到均衡。这些结果为土地利用规划，城市总体规划和管理决策提供参考。