Various thermal prediction methods and tools for conceptual building design have been rapidly developed in the past decades. However, most of these methods have some drawbacks to obsess their applications, such as heavily relying on very detailed information of building envelope components, and their thermal conductivity data with complicated computation models or formulas; and difficulties for architects to understand and judge the outcomes of such predictions in a conceptual design. Therefore, this research targets on developing a simplified method to predict the integrated thermal performance of a building with simplified envelope parameters and hourly free-running temperatures in the conceptual design stage. It categorizes the scattered design parameters into three combined thermal characteristic indexes and applies a serials of corresponding quasi-steady calculation methods for building thermal processes to predict hourly free-running temperatures. The interrelationships between these three combined indexes and two overall thermal performance indicators are verified via a sensitivity analysis, and are presented in two charts, which can easily be adopted in a conceptual building design. This method has been validated in an experimental case study. It can help architects to quickly find the thermal design performance of a designed building in the conceptual design stage.

在过去的几十年中，用于概念建筑设计的各种热预测方法和工具得到了迅速的发展。但是，这些方法中的大多数都有一些缺点，困扰着它们的应用，例如严重依赖建筑围护结构组件的非常详细的信息以及具有复杂计算模型或公式的导热系数数据。建筑师难以理解和判断概念设计中此类预测的结果。因此，本研究旨在开发一种简化的方法，以在概念设计阶段以简化的包络参数和每小时自由运行温度来预测建筑物的综合热性能。它将分散的设计参数分类为三个组合的热特性指标，并应用了一系列相应的准稳态计算方法来构建热过程，以预测每小时的自由运行温度。通过敏感性分析验证了这三个组合指标与两个总体热性能指标之间的相互关系，并在两个图表中显示，可以很容易地在概念性建筑设计中采用它们。此方法已在实验案例研究中得到验证。它可以帮助建筑师在概念设计阶段快速找到设计建筑物的热设计性能。通过敏感性分析验证了这三个组合指标与两个总体热性能指标之间的相互关系，并在两个图表中显示，可以很容易地在概念性建筑设计中采用它们。此方法已在实验案例研究中得到验证。它可以帮助建筑师在概念设计阶段快速找到设计建筑物的热设计性能。通过敏感性分析验证了这三个组合指标与两个总体热性能指标之间的相互关系，并在两个图表中显示，可以很容易地在概念性建筑设计中采用它们。此方法已在实验案例研究中得到验证。它可以帮助建筑师在概念设计阶段快速找到设计建筑物的热设计性能。