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PrioritEvac: an Agent-Based Model (ABM) for Examining Social Factors of Building Fire Evacuation
Information Systems Frontiers ( IF 6.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-19 , DOI: 10.1007/s10796-020-10074-9
Eileen Young , Benigno Aguirre

Fire evacuation modeling benefits from the application of social science both in terms of accuracy and external validation. This paper describes PrioritEvac, a novel agent-based model which incorporates the social dimension of group loyalty into fire evacuation and responses to fire and smoke. It uses individual priorities, making for a dynamic approach that allows greater agency and nuance. PrioritEvac is programmed in NetLogo and validated using extensive data collected from the Station nightclub fire. The statistical analysis of the results of the model indicate that, compared to historical patterns, it reproduces along multiple metrics including a mean of 114 deaths (std. dev. = 38) over 50 runs, which puts the actual result of the fire within one standard deviation of the mean results of the simulation. Overall, the mean differential along all the metrics is 79, significantly outperforming all published ABM models of the Station nightclub fire that did not incorporate social relationships.



中文翻译:

PrioritEvac:基于主体的模型(ABM),用于检查建筑物火灾疏散的社会因素

疏散建模在准确性和外部验证方面都受益于社会科学的应用。本文介绍了PrioritEvac,这是一种新颖的基于主体的模型,该模型将团体忠诚的社会层面纳入了火灾疏散以及对火灾和烟雾的响应中。它使用各个优先级,从而形成了一种动态的方法,可以使代理机构和细微差别得到更大的提高。PrioritEvac在NetLogo中进行了编程,并使用从车站夜总会火灾中收集的大量数据进行了验证。对模型结果的统计分析表明,与历史模式相比,该模型沿着多个度量重现,包括在50次运行中平均有114例死亡(标准差= 38),这将火灾的实际结果控制在一个范围内模拟平均值的标准偏差。总体,

更新日期:2020-10-19
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