Based on the cellular automaton model, the risk of modernization of traditional sports culture is evaluated and measured by using the methods of documentary, interview, and simulation experiments. The results of simulation experiment show that, in the complex system of the modernization of traditional sports culture, the mutation factors will lead to the sudden decline of the survival suitability of traditional sports culture and the risk of being unable to evolve; in the process of the modernization of traditional sports culture, there are two kinds of risks: self-extinction of dying out and self-extinction of homogenization; risk of dislocation failure lies in the government’s support policies; risk of imbalance between fitness and scale allocation lies in modernity of derivative traditional sports culture. Countermeasures. The government should measure the environmental carrying capacity of the development of traditional sports culture in the region according to the regional resource situation; on this basis, heterogeneous sports activities are selectively introduced, the vitality of local traditional sports culture is enhanced, and the policy support and intervention time are reasonably controlled, to promote the balanced allocation of the suitability and scale of the derivative traditional sports culture.

中文翻译：

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基于元胞自动机模型的传统体育文化现代化风险评估模拟研究

基于元胞自动机模型，通过纪录片，访谈和模拟实验的方法评估和测量了传统体育文化现代化的风险。仿真实验结果表明，在传统体育文化现代化的复杂系统中，突变因素将导致传统体育文化生存适应性突然下降，并具有无法进化的风险。在传统体育文化现代化进程中，存在两种风险：死亡的自我消亡和同质化的自我消灭。错位失败的风险在于政府的支持政策；健身与规模分配不平衡的风险在于衍生传统体育文化的现代性。对策。政府应根据区域资源状况，衡量该地区传统体育文化发展的环境承载力；在此基础上，有选择地引入了多种多样的体育活动，增强了当地传统体育文化的生命力，合理控制了政策支持和干预时间，促进了衍生传统体育文化的适用性和规模的均衡分配。