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Changes in Temperature Trends and Extremes over Saudi Arabia for the Period 1978–2019
Advances in Meteorology ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-17 , DOI: 10.1155/2020/8828421
Mansour Almazroui 1
Affiliation  

Climate change is posing severe threats to human health through its impacts on food, water supply, and weather. Saudi Arabia has frequently experienced record-breaking climate extremes over the last decade, which have had adverse socioeconomic effects on many sectors of the country. The present study explores the changes in average temperature and temperature extremes over Saudi Arabia using an updated daily temperature dataset for the period 1978–2019. Also, changes in frequency and percentile trends of extreme events, as well as in absolute threshold-based temperature extremes, are analyzed at seasonal and annual time scales. The results are robust in showing an increase in both temperature trends and temperature extremes averaged over the second period (2000–2019) when compared to the first period (1980–1999). Over the period 1978–2019, the minimum temperature for the country increased (0.64°C per decade) at a higher rate than the maximum temperature (0.60°C per decade). The rate of increase in the minimum and maximum temperatures was reported as 0.48 and 0.71°C per decade, respectively, for the period 1978–2009. The minimum temperature increased by 0.81°C per decade for the second period compared to an increase of 0.47°C per decade for the first period. The significant increase in minimum temperature has resulted in a decreasing linear trend in the diurnal temperature range over recent decades. The maximum (minimum) temperature increased at a higher rate for Jan-Mar (Jun-Nov) with the highest increase of 0.82 (0.89)°C per decade occurring in March (August). The analysis shows a substantial increase (decrease) in the number of warm (cold) days/nights over the second period compared to the first period. The number of warm days (nights) significantly increased by about 13 (21) days per decade, and there is a significant decrease of about 11 (13) days per decade of cold days (nights). The seasonal analysis shows that this increase in warm days/nights is enhanced in boreal summer, with a reduction in the number of cold days/nights in winter. These results indicate that the warming climate of Saudi Arabia is accelerating in recent decades, which may have severe socioeconomic repercussions in many sectors of the country.

中文翻译:

1978–2019年期间沙特阿拉伯的温度趋势和极端变化

气候变化通过影响食物,水供应和天气,对人类健康构成严重威胁。在过去的十年中,沙特阿拉伯经常经历破纪录的极端气候,给该国许多部门带来了不利的社会经济影响。本研究使用更新的1978-2019年期间的每日温度数据集,探索了沙特阿拉伯平均温度和极端温度的变化。同样,在季节性和年度时间尺度上分析极端事件的频率和百分比趋势以及基于绝对阈值的温度极端的变化。与第一阶段(1980-1999年)相比,第二阶段(2000-2019年)平均温度趋势和极端温度均增加,结果是有力的。在1978-2019年期间,该国的最低温度(每十年0.64°C)以高于最高温度(每十年0.60°C)的速度增加。据报告,1978年至2009年期间,最低和最高温度每十年的增长率分别为0.48和0.71°C。第二阶段的最低温度每十年增加0.81°C,而第一阶段的最低温度每十年增加0.47°C。最低温度的显着提高导致近几十年来昼夜温度范围的线性趋势不断下降。1月至3月(6月至11月)的最高(最低)温度以较高的速率增加,3月(8月)每十年最高升高0.82(0.89)°C。分析显示,与第一时期相比,第二时期的暖(冷)天/夜数量大幅增加(减少)。每十年中,温暖的日子(夜晚)的数量显着增加约13(21)天,而每十年中的寒冷的日子(夜晚)的数量则显着减少约11(13)天。季节性分析表明,在凉爽的夏季,这种温暖的白天/夜晚的增加在增加,而在冬季,寒冷的白天/夜晚的数量减少了。这些结果表明,近几十年来,沙特阿拉伯的气候正在加速升温,这可能对该国许多部门产生严重的社会经济影响。并且每十年的寒冷天(夜)显着减少约11(13)天。季节性分析表明,在凉爽的夏季,这种温暖的白天/夜晚的增加在增加,而在冬季,寒冷的白天/夜晚的数量减少了。这些结果表明,近几十年来,沙特阿拉伯的气候正在加速升温,这可能对该国许多部门产生严重的社会经济影响。并且每十年的寒冷天(夜)显着减少约11(13)天。季节性分析表明,在凉爽的夏季,这种温暖的白天/夜晚的增加在增加,而在冬季,寒冷的白天/夜晚的数量减少了。这些结果表明,近几十年来,沙特阿拉伯的气候正在加速升温,这可能对该国许多部门产生严重的社会经济影响。
更新日期:2020-10-17
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