Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modeling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modeling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.

中文翻译：

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提升全球生态建模能力以模拟海洋生态系统未来变化轨迹

正在付出相当大的努力来预测气候变化和人为活动对海洋生物物理环境、生物多样性和自然资源的影响，以更好地了解海洋生态系统和为人类提供的服务可能如何改变并探索替代途径和选择。我们提出了 EcoOcean (v2) 的更新版本，这是一种全球海洋的时空生态系统建模复合体，涵盖从初级生产者到顶级捕食者的食物网动态。进步包括通过将物种生产力、分布和营养相互作用与气候变化和全球渔业的影响联系起来，增强了再现时空生态系统动态的能力。更新的建模平台用于模拟过去和未来的变化场景，在这里，我们量化了生态模型替代配置的影响、对气候变化情景的响应以及捕鱼的额外影响。气候变化情景是从两个地球系统模型（ESM、GFDL-ESM2M 和 IPSL-CMA5-LR）和两个对比的历史（1950-2005）和未来（2006-2100）排放路径（RCP 2.6 和 8.5）中获得的) 期间。选定物种组的标准化生态指标和生物量用于比较模拟。结果显示了未来的生态轨迹如何对 EcoOcean 的替代配置敏感，并在查看生态指标时产生适度差异和物种组生物量的较大差异。生态轨迹也对来自替代 ESM 输出和 RCP 的环境驱动因素敏感，并在使用 IPSL 和 RCP 8.5 时显示空间可变性和更严重的变化。在非捕鱼配置下，较大的生物体表现出下降趋势，而较小的生物体表现出混合或增加的结果。捕鱼加剧了气候变化所预测的负面影响，在 IPSL 和 RCP 8.5 下再次加剧，这导致已经在气候变化下已经丧失的物种的生物量下降幅度更大，或者抑制了对那些增加的物种的积极影响。在气候变化下获胜的几个物种组在综合影响下成为输家，而预计只有少数（小型底栖鱼类和头足类）物种在累积影响下表现出积极的生物量变化。EcoOcean v2 有助于量化多重压力源的累积影响评估和合理的基于海洋的解决方案，以防止、