The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a severe threat to public health officials all around the world. The early COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea displayed significant spatial heterogeneity. The number of confirmed cases increased rapidly in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk (epicenter), whereas the spread was much slower in the rest of Korea. A two-patch mathematical model with a mobility matrix is developed to capture this significant spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 outbreaks from 18 February to 24 March 2020. The mobility matrix is taken from the movement data provided by the Korea Transport Institute (KOTI). Some of the essential patch-specific parameters are estimated through cumulative confirmed cases, including the transmission rates and the basic reproduction numbers (local and global). Our simulations show that travel restrictions between the epicenter and the rest of Korea effectively prevented massive outbreaks in the rest of Korea. Furthermore, we explore the effectiveness of several additional strategies for the mitigation and suppression of Covid-19 spread in Korea, such as implementing social distancing and early diagnostic interventions.

中文翻译：

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韩国COVID-19传播动力学的数学模型：旅行限制，社会距离和早期发现的影响

新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）对世界各地的公共卫生官员构成了严重威胁。韩国早期的COVID-19暴发表现出明显的空间异质性。大邱和庆北地区（中心）确诊病例的数量迅速增加，而韩国其他地区的确诊病例则慢得多。建立了带有迁移矩阵的两补丁数学模型，以捕获2020年2月18日至2020年3月24日COVID-19暴发的这种重要的空间异质性。迁移矩阵取自韩国交通运输学会（KOTI）提供的运动数据。一些特定的补丁特定参数是通过累积确认的案例进行估算的，包括传输速率和基本复制数量（本地和全局）。我们的模拟显示，震中与韩国其他地区之间的旅行限制有效地阻止了韩国其他地区的大规模爆发。此外，我们探索了缓解和抑制在韩国传播的Covid-19的其他几种策略的有效性，例如实施社会疏远和早期诊断干预措施。