Abstract

Recent disruptive events, such as earthquakes or floods, have caused severe damage to civil infrastructure systems. Thus, there is a need to extend the focus of traditional design practices to include resilience-based design approaches which can help in defining preventive actions and measures to mitigate the consequences caused by such disruptive events. This paper presents a Civil Infrastructure Resilience Assessment Framework (CIRAF) to assess the seismic fragility and resilience of a single or multiple interconnected civil infrastructure systems following a disruptive event. Once the information regarding the infrastructure system, hazards, fragility functions, component's damage state correlation, recovery models, and upgrade models are identified, then the framework can be used to quantify the loss of functionality, recovery time, repair cost, and overall resilience using a Bayesian Network approach. A state-of-the-art engineering tool is also developed using the framework that would enable the stakeholders to compare different upgrade strategies through an easy to use web interface and thus easing the decision-making process. A case study of a hypothetical nuclear power generation system is used to assess the seismic fragility and resilience using the proposed framework.

摘要

最近的破坏性事件，如地震或洪水，对民用基础设施系统造成了严重破坏。因此，有必要将传统设计实践的重点扩展到包括基于弹性的设计方法，这有助于定义预防措施和措施，以减轻此类破坏性事件造成的后果。本文提出了一个民用基础设施复原力评估框架 (CIRAF)，以评估破坏性事件发生后单个或多个互连的民用基础设施系统的地震脆弱性和复原力。一旦确定了有关基础设施系统、危害、脆弱性功能、组件的损坏状态相关性、恢复模型和升级模型的信息，则该框架可用于量化功能损失、恢复时间、使用贝叶斯网络方法修复成本和整体弹性。还使用该框架开发了最先进的工程工具，使利益相关者能够通过易于使用的 Web 界面比较不同的升级策略，从而简化决策过程。假设核发电系统的案例研究用于使用所提出的框架评估地震脆弱性和弹性。