We demonstrate the power of combining two emergent tools for resolving rangewide metapopulation dynamics. First, we employed environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys to efficiently generate multiseason rangewide site occupancy histories. Second, we developed a novel dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy model to estimate metapopulation dynamics. The model incorporates spatial relationships, explicitly accounts for non-detection bias and allows direct evaluation of the drivers of extinction and colonization. We applied these tools to examine metapopulation dynamics of endangered tidewater goby, a species endemic to California estuarine habitats. We analysed rangewide eDNA data from 190 geographically isolated sites (813 total water samples) surveyed from 2 years (2016 and 2017). Rangewide estimates of the proportion of sites that were occupied varied little between 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.51). However, there was evidence of extinction and colonization dynamics. The probability of extinction of an occupied site (0.106) and probability of colonization of an unoccupied site (0.085) were nearly equal. Stability in site occupancy proportions combined with nearly equal rates of extinction and colonization suggests a dynamic equilibrium between the 2 years surveyed. Assessment of covariate effects revealed that colonization probability increased as the number of occupied neighbouring sites increased and as distance between occupied sites decreased. We show that eDNA surveys can rapidly provide a snapshot of a species distribution over a broad geographic range and, when these surveys are paired with occupancy modelling, can uncover metapopulation dynamics and their drivers.

中文翻译：

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使用环境 DNA 和占用模型来估计范围内的复合种群动态

我们展示了结合两种新兴工具来解决范围广泛的元种群动态的能力。首先，我们采用环境 DNA (eDNA) 调查来有效地生成多季节范围内的站点占用历史。其次，我们开发了一种新颖的动态空间多尺度占用模型来估计元种群动态。该模型结合了空间关系，明确说明了非检测偏差，并允许直接评估灭绝和殖民化的驱动因素。我们应用这些工具来检查濒临灭绝的潮水虾虎鱼的综合种群动态，这是加利福尼亚河口栖息地的特有物种。我们分析了 2 年（2016 年和 2017 年）调查的 190 个地理上孤立的地点（总共 813 个水样）的大范围 eDNA 数据。在 2016 年 (0.52) 和 2017 年 (0.51) 之间，对被占用场地比例的大范围估计变化不大。然而，有证据表明灭绝和殖民动态。已占领地点的灭绝概率 (0.106) 和未占领地点的定殖概率 (0.085) 几乎相等。场地占用比例的稳定性加上几乎相等的灭绝和殖民率表明调查的 2 年之间存在动态平衡。协变量效应的评估表明，随着邻近站点数量的增加和占据站点之间距离的减少，定植概率增加。我们表明，eDNA 调查可以快速提供广泛地理范围内物种分布的快照，并且当这些调查与占用模型配对时，