Species distribution models (SDMs) treat species as a single unit, neglecting intraspecific variation. Few studies address the impact of intraspecific variation on SDM performance, and none of them account for the well-known inter-algorithm variability in prediction performance. The endemic Iberian amphibian Lissotriton boscai comprises two geographically highly structured phylogenetic lineages, which allowed us to explore how intraspecific variation affects the overall performance of SDMs and the predicted ecological niche. We built species and lineage distribution models using three different presence-only algorithms. We also tested for niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity, using an ordination technique. We found differences in the predicted potential distribution of the two lineages and the underlying environmental factors. Moreover, intraspecific differences in model predictive capacity existed irrespective of which algorithm was used to build the distribution models. This was coupled with lineages showing a low degree of niche overlap and occurring in relatively different environmental niches spaces. The intraspecific variation observed in L. boscai led to an improved intraspecific predictivity of the lineage level based-distribution models. There was partial spatial agreement between the niche overlap and independently reported secondary contact zones. Thus SDMs built only at the species level may be too naive to predict impacts of global change on species distributions.

中文翻译：

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地方性蝾螈深度分化的系统发育谱系之间的利基分化：对物种分布模型的影响

物种分布模型 (SDM) 将物种视为一个单位，忽略种内变异。很少有研究解决种内变异对 SDM 性能的影响，而且没有一项研究解释了众所周知的预测性能的算法间变异性。地方性伊比利亚两栖动物 Lissotriton boscai 包括两个地理上高度结构化的系统发育谱系，这使我们能够探索种内变异如何影响 SDM 的整体性能和预测的生态位。我们使用三种不同的仅存在算法构建了物种和谱系分布模型。我们还使用排序技术测试了生态位重叠、生态位等效性和生态位相似性。我们发现两个谱系的预测潜在分布和潜在环境因素存在差异。此外，无论使用哪种算法来构建分布模型，模型预测能力的种内差异都存在。这与显示出低度生态位重叠和发生在相对不同的环境生态位空间中的谱系相结合。在 L. boscai 中观察到的种内变异导致基于谱系水平的分布模型的种内预测性提高。生态位重叠和独立报告的次要接触区之间存在部分空间一致性。因此，仅在物种层面建立的 SDM 可能过于幼稚，无法预测全球变化对物种分布的影响。这与显示出低度生态位重叠和发生在相对不同的环境生态位空间中的谱系相结合。在 L. boscai 中观察到的种内变异导致基于谱系水平的分布模型的种内预测性提高。生态位重叠和独立报告的次要接触区之间存在部分空间一致性。因此，仅在物种层面建立的 SDM 可能过于幼稚，无法预测全球变化对物种分布的影响。这与显示出低度生态位重叠和发生在相对不同的环境生态位空间中的谱系相结合。在 L. boscai 中观察到的种内变异导致基于谱系水平的分布模型的种内预测性提高。生态位重叠和独立报告的次要接触区之间存在部分空间一致性。因此，仅在物种层面建立的 SDM 可能过于幼稚，无法预测全球变化对物种分布的影响。