We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations — we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, subject to hospital admissions never exceeding a threshold value corresponding to health-service capacity. Within the framework of the model, the optimal strategy of disease control is revealed to be one of disease suppression, rather than disease mitigation.

中文翻译：

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用于控制爱尔兰人口中 COVID-19 爆发的分段常数最优控制策略

我们引入了确定性 SEIR 模型，并将其与爱尔兰 COVID-19 爆发的流行病学数据进行拟合。我们将模型与经济因素结合起来——我们制定了一个最优控制问题，其中各种非药物干预措施的经济成本最小化，但住院人数永远不会超过与卫生服务能力相对应的阈值。在该模型的框架内，疾病控制的最佳策略被揭示为抑制疾病，而不是缓解疾病。