Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.

过程安全是用于传达危害识别，风险评估和安全管理策略的通用全球通用语言。过程安全被认为是过程开发不可或缺的一部分，其重点是预防和减轻过程工业中的重大过程事故，例如火灾，爆炸和有毒物质释放。事故概率估计是所有定量风险评估方法中最重要的步骤。石油的钻井过程是危险的操作，因此安全性是主要考虑因素之一，通常以风险来衡量。动态风险评估方法旨在通过更新事件和安全壁垒的初始故障概率来重新评估风险，因为在特定操作期间可获得新信息。在这个研究中，贝叶斯网络模型被开发来代表井涌情景。通过将安全屏障的实时故障概率值（以不同的时间间隔观察）馈送到贝叶斯网络中，从而获得动态环境的概念，以获得相应的随时间变化的反冲结果。这项研究揭示了实时监控安全屏障性能的重要性，并定量显示了屏障性能恶化对踢出后果概率的影响。Macondo井喷事件用于演示如何观察到障碍物概率变化的预警，并进行适当管理以防止升级为严重后果。通过将安全屏障的实时故障概率值（以不同的时间间隔观察）馈送到贝叶斯网络中，从而获得动态环境的概念，以获得相应的随时间变化的反冲结果。这项研究揭示了实时监控安全屏障性能的重要性，并定量显示了屏障性能恶化对踢出后果概率的影响。Macondo井喷事件用于演示如何观察到障碍物概率变化的预警，并进行适当管理以防止升级为严重后果。通过将安全屏障的实时故障概率值（以不同的时间间隔观察）馈送到贝叶斯网络中，从而获得动态环境的概念，以获得相应的随时间变化的反冲结果。这项研究揭示了实时监控安全屏障性能的重要性，并定量显示了屏障性能恶化对踢出后果概率的影响。Macondo井喷事件用于演示如何观察到障碍物概率变化的预警，并进行适当管理以防止升级为严重后果。这项研究揭示了实时监控安全屏障性能的重要性，并定量显示了屏障性能恶化对踢出后果概率的影响。Macondo井喷事件用于演示如何观察到障碍物概率变化的预警，并进行适当管理以防止升级为严重后果。这项研究揭示了实时监控安全屏障性能的重要性，并定量显示了屏障性能恶化对踢出后果概率的影响。Macondo井喷事件用于演示如何观察到障碍物概率变化的预警，并进行适当管理以防止升级为严重后果。