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State-of-the-art one-stop handbook on wind forecasting technologies: An overview of classifications, methodologies, and analysis
Journal of Cleaner Production ( IF 9.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124628
Bo Yang , Linen Zhong , Jingbo Wang , Hongchun Shu , Xiaoshun Zhang , Tao Yu , Liming Sun

Wind energy has the inherent nature of intermittence and randomness, such that its accurate prediction is extremely critical to ensure safe and stable operation of power system with increased wind power integration. This paper aims to present a thorough state-of-the-art one-stop handbook on various approaches applied in wind forecasting based on three perspectives: wind speed and power forecasting, uncertainty forecasting, and ramp events forecasting. Firstly, four classifications of wind data according to data source, along with twenty-seven data pre-processing technologies which can efficiently improve prediction precision are carefully addressed. Then, a systematic literature review of model principle based wind speed and power forecasting strategies is investigated, which is categorized into three groups: physical approaches, statistical approaches, and combined approaches. Peculiarly, it has reported that combined approaches can realize more than 70% accuracy improvement compared with single model. Besides, three novel technologies developed in recent years are also discussed, e.g., spatial correlation forecasting, regional forecasting, and offshore forecasting. Moreover, thirty-seven evaluation criteria of wind speed and power forecasting are thoroughly summarized for performance verification. Additionally, uncertainty forecasting and ramp events forecasting which can provide more risk information for operators to handle decision-making issues in power system are also elaborated. Lastly, eight recommendations for further development in wind forecasting are also proposed. The prominent merit of this work is that a total of one hundred and seven wind forecasting methods from three perspectives are comprehensively summarized and compared based on inputs, time-scale, space-scale, forecasting variables, metrics, and features, which aims to help readers more effectively utilize these approaches for future in-depth researches.

中文翻译:


最先进的风力预报技术一站式手册:分类、方法和分析概述



风能具有固有的间歇性和随机性,其准确预测对于确保风电并网增加的电力系统安全稳定运行至关重要。本文旨在从风速和功率预测、不确定性预测和斜坡事件预测三个角度,提供关于风预测中应用的各种方法的全面、最先进的一站式手册。首先,根据数据源对风数据进行了四种分类,以及可有效提高预测精度的27种数据预处理技术。然后,对基于模型原理的风速和功率预测策略进行了系统的文献综述,分为三组:物理方法、统计方法和组合方法。值得注意的是,据报道,与单一模型相比,组合方法可以实现超过 70% 的精度提升。此外,还讨论了近年来发展起来的三项新技术,即空间相关预报、区域预报和近海预报。此外,还深入总结了37条风速和功率预测的评价标准,进行性能验证。此外,还详细阐述了不确定性预测和斜坡事件预测,可为运营商处理电力系统决策问题提供更多风险信息。最后,还提出了进一步发展风预报的八项建议。 该工作的突出优点是从输入、时间尺度、空间尺度、预测变量、指标和特征三个角度对107种风预报方法进行了全面的总结和比较,旨在帮助读者可以更有效地利用这些方法进行未来的深入研究。
更新日期:2020-10-17
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