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Factors influencing casualty risk in the 14th November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand earthquake
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101917
Nick Horspool , Ken Elwood , David Johnston , Joanne Deely , Michael Ardagh

The November 14, 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake was one of the largest earthquakes to occur in New Zealand in the past 100 years and resulted in two deaths and 618 injuries. Understanding the context and cause of casualties from earthquakes is important for informing risk reduction activities such as building codes, education of protective actions, and casualty modelling. Data on casualties (deaths and injuries) from the Kaikōura earthquake were sourced from New Zealand's publicly funded accidental injury insurance scheme. Casualties were compared to a control group of uninjured people using a case-control design. Odds ratios were calculated through multivariate logistic regression to quantify the influence of individual, seismological and contextual factors on casualty risk. Females were twice as likely to be injured than males, and injury risk increased 30% with every 10 year increase in age. People were 2.9 times more likely to be injured if they were in non-residential buildings, and injury risk increased 2.2 times for every unit increase in MMI shaking intensity. Thirty-seven percent of casualties were from falls, 44% were from actions of people during shaking and 8% were due to being hit by contents. Nine percent of people were injured after shaking stopped during evacuations, or clean-up. The results indicate that in regions with a well-regulated building industry with modern building codes such as New Zealand, casualties are dominated by non-fatal injuries, and the number of these injuries are determined by the behaviour of individuals during and immediately following earthquake shaking.



中文翻译:

影响新西兰2016年11月14日M W 7.8地震伤亡风险的因素

2016年11月14日M W7.8凯库拉地震是过去100年来新西兰最大的地震之一,造成2人死亡和618人受伤。了解地震造成的人员伤亡的背景和原因对于告知降低风险的活动(例如建筑规范,保护措施教育和人员伤亡建模)非常重要。凯库拉地震造成的人员伤亡(死亡和受伤)数据来自新西兰的公共资助意外伤害保险计划。使用病例对照设计,将伤亡人数与对照组的未受伤人员进行比较。通过多元逻辑回归计算赔率,以量化个人,地震和背景因素对人员伤亡风险的影响。女性受伤的可能性是男性的两倍,年龄每增加10年,伤害风险就会增加30%。如果人们在非住宅建筑中受伤,则受伤的可能性要高2.9倍,而每单位MMI晃动强度的增加,受伤的风险则增加2.2倍。37%的人员伤亡来自跌倒,44%的人员晃动时受伤,8%的人员伤亡。在疏散或清理过程中停止摇晃后,有9%的人受伤。结果表明,在新西兰等现代建筑法规规范的建筑业监管良好的地区,人员伤亡主要是非致命伤害,而这些伤害的数量取决于地震震荡期间和震后个人的行为。 。如果他们在非住宅建筑物中受伤的可能性增加9倍,并且每单位MMI晃动强度的增加,受伤的风险就会增加2.2倍。37%的人员伤亡来自跌倒,44%的人员晃动时受伤,8%的人员伤亡。在疏散或清理过程中停止摇晃后,有9%的人受伤。结果表明,在新西兰等现代建筑法规规范的建筑业监管良好的地区,人员伤亡主要是非致命伤害,而这些伤害的数量取决于地震震荡期间和震后个人的行为。 。如果他们在非住宅建筑物中受伤的可能性增加9倍,并且每单位MMI晃动强度的增加,受伤的风险就会增加2.2倍。37%的人员伤亡来自跌倒,44%的人员晃动时受伤,8%的人员伤亡。在疏散或清理过程中停止摇晃后,有9%的人受伤。结果表明,在新西兰等现代建筑法规规范的建筑业监管良好的地区,人员伤亡主要是非致命伤害,而这些伤害的数量取决于地震震荡期间和震后的个人行为。37%的人员伤亡来自跌倒,44%的人员晃动时受伤,8%的人员伤亡。在疏散或清理过程中停止摇晃后,有9%的人受伤。结果表明,在新西兰等现代建筑法规规范的建筑业监管良好的地区,人员伤亡主要是非致命伤害,而这些伤害的数量取决于地震震荡期间和震后个人的行为。 。37%的人员伤亡来自跌倒,44%的人员晃动时受伤,8%的人员伤亡。在疏散或清理过程中停止摇晃后,有9%的人受伤。结果表明,在新西兰等现代建筑法规规范的建筑业监管良好的地区,人员伤亡主要是非致命伤害,而这些伤害的数量取决于地震震荡期间和震后个人的行为。 。

更新日期:2020-10-30
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