ABSTRACT Ecological risk assessments play an important role in environmental management and decision-making. Although empirical measurements of the effects of habitat changes and chemical exposure are often made at molecular and individual levels, environmental decision-making often requires the quantification of management-relevant, population-level outcomes. In this study, we generalized a modeling framework to evaluate population-level ecological risk of environmental stress and bioactive chemicals. The modeling framework includes (1) a biological model module that incorporates complex and interacting biological and ecological processes, and environmental stochasticity, (2) an effect module that links the impacts of environmental changes and chemical exposure to individual characteristics, and (3) a population module that makes decisions on the choice of population-level properties to best capture the effects and thus to track in the model based on the target species and the research and management interest. This framework is a 3-module procedure that provides an alternative way for researchers to organize, present and communicate the risk assessment modeling studies. To demonstrate this framework, we used a socioeconomically important riverine fish species, smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu, as the model species. We developed an individual-based model as the biological model module. We evaluated the impacts of changing water temperature and flow regimes, and the impacts of exposure to estrogenic endocrine disrupting compounds (EEDC) on smallmouth bass populations in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. Warm summer water temperatures and year-round high flows had the most severe impacts on the smallmouth bass population. An increase in exposure level to EEDC, both year-round and in summer months, substantially reduced population size, spawner and recruit abundance, and the proportion of quality-length individuals. Acute exposure to EEDC was more detrimental to the population than chronic exposure. Acute exposure during spawning season had the most severe impacts. This modeling framework can be extended to other species, environmental factors and chemicals, and can be used to inform management and conservation decisions.

中文翻译：

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环境压力和生物活性化学物质对河流鱼类种群的生态风险评估：基于个体的小嘴鲈鱼 Micropterus dolomieu 模型✰

摘要 生态风险评估在环境管理和决策中发挥着重要作用。尽管对栖息地变化和化学暴露影响的经验测量通常是在分子和个体水平上进行的，但环境决策通常需要对与管理相关的人口水平结果进行量化。在这项研究中，我们概括了一个建模框架来评估环境压力和生物活性化学物质的人口水平生态风险。建模框架包括（1）一个包含复杂和相互作用的生物和生态过程以及环境随机性的生物模型模块，（2）一个将环境变化和化学暴露对个体特征的影响联系起来的效应模块，(3) 种群模块，它决定种群水平特性的选择，以最好地捕捉影响，从而根据目标物种以及研究和管理兴趣在模型中进行跟踪。该框架是一个 3 模块程序，为研究人员组织、展示和交流风险评估建模研究提供了一种替代方式。为了证明这个框架，我们使用了一种具有社会经济意义的河流鱼类，小嘴鲈鱼 Micropterus dolomieu，作为模型物种。我们开发了一个基于个体的模型作为生物模型模块。我们评估了水温和水流状态变化的影响，以及暴露于雌激素内分泌干扰物 (EEDC) 对美国切萨皮克湾流域小口黑鲈种群的影响。夏季温暖的水温和全年的高流量对小口黑鲈种群的影响最为严重。全年和夏季暴露于 EEDC 的水平增加，大大减少了种群规模、产卵和新兵丰度，以及优质个体的比例。EEDC 的急性暴露比慢性暴露对人群的危害更大。产卵季节的急性暴露影响最为严重。该建模框架可以扩展到其他物种、环境因素和化学品，并可用于为管理和保护决策提供信息。产卵和招募丰度，以及优质个体的比例。EEDC 的急性暴露比慢性暴露对人群的危害更大。产卵季节的急性暴露影响最为严重。该建模框架可以扩展到其他物种、环境因素和化学品，并可用于为管理和保护决策提供信息。产卵和招募丰度，以及优质个体的比例。EEDC 的急性暴露比慢性暴露对人群的危害更大。产卵季节的急性暴露影响最为严重。该建模框架可以扩展到其他物种、环境因素和化学品，并可用于为管理和保护决策提供信息。