Climate change seriously threatens biodiversity, particularly in mountain ecosystems. However, studies on climate change effects rarely consider endemic species and their niche properties. Using species distribution models, we assessed the impact of climate change on the endemic flora of the richest centre of endemism in the Alps: the South-Western Alps. We projected the potential distributions of 100 taxa under both an optimistic (RCP2.6) and a pessimistic (RCP8.5) climate scenario, analysing the relationships between range dynamics and several predictors (dispersal abilities, vegetation belts, niche marginality, niche breadth, altitudinal range and present range). The negative impact ranged from weak to severe according to the scenario, but the extinction risk was low. The dispersal abilities of species strongly affected these range dynamics. Colline and subalpine species were the most threatened and the relationship between range dynamics and predictors varied among vegetation belts. Our results suggest that the rough topography of the SW Alps will probably buffer the climate change effects on endemics, especially if climate will remain within the limits already experienced by species during the Holocene. The presence of the Mediterranean-mountain flora, less affected by climate change than the alpine one, may explain the lower number of species threatened by extinction in the SW Alps than in other European mountains. These results suggest that the relationship between plants’ sensitivity to climate change, and both niche properties and vegetation belts, depends on the difference between the current climate in which species grow and the future climate, and not just on their niche breadth.

气候变化严重威胁生物多样性，特别是在山区生态系统中。但是，有关气候变化影响的研究很少考虑特有物种及其生态位特性。使用物种分布模型，我们评估了气候变化对阿尔卑斯山西南部阿尔卑斯山地方病最丰富的地方的地方性植物区系的影响。我们预测了乐观（RCP2.6）和悲观（RCP8.5）气候情景下100个分类单元的潜在分布，分析了范围动态与几个预测因子（分散能力，植被带，生态位边缘性，生态位宽度，高度范围和当前范围）。根据情况，负面影响从弱到严重不等，但灭绝风险低。物种的扩散能力强烈影响了这些范围动态。柯林和亚高山种受到的威胁最大，植被带之间的距离动态和预测因子之间的关系也有所不同。我们的结果表明，西南阿尔卑斯山脉的崎the地形可能会缓冲气候变化对地方病的影响，特别是如果气候保持在全新世期间物种已经经历的范围之内。地中海山区植物区系受到气候变化影响的程度低于高山地区，这可能解释了西南阿尔卑斯山受灭绝威胁的物种数量少于其他欧洲山区。这些结果表明，植物对气候变化的敏感性与生态位特性和植被带之间的关系取决于物种生长的当前气候与未来气候之间的差异，