Norway spruce ( Picea abies L.) is among the most sensitive coniferous species to ongoing climate change. However, previous studies on its growth response to increasing temperatures have yielded contrasting results (from stimulation to suppression), suggesting highly site-specific responses. Here, we present the first study that applies two independent approaches, i.e. the nonlinear, process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model and linear daily response functions. Data were collected at twelve sites in Slovenia differing in climate regimes and ranging elevation between 170 and 1300 m a.s.l. VS model results revealed that drier Norway spruce sites at lower elevations are mostly moisture limited, while moist high-elevation sites are generally more temperature limited. Daily response functions match well the pattern of growth-limiting factors from the VS model and further explain the effect of climate on radial growth: prevailing growth-limiting factors correspond to the climate variable with higher correlations. Radial growth correlates negatively with rising summer temperature and positively with higher spring precipitation. The opposite response was observed for the wettest site at the highest elevation, which positively reacts to increased summer temperature and will most likely benefit from a warming climate. For all other sites, the future radial growth of Norway spruce largely depends on the balance between spring precipitation and summer temperature.

中文翻译：

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挪威云杉 (Picea abies L.) 沿斯洛文尼亚海拔和降水梯度的生长限制因素和气候响应变异

挪威云杉 ( Picea abies L.) 是对持续气候变化最敏感的针叶树种之一。然而，先前关于其对温度升高的生长反应的研究产生了截然不同的结果（从刺激到抑制），表明具有高度的位点特异性反应。在这里，我们提出了第一个应用两种独立方法的研究，即非线性、基于过程的 Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) 模型和线性日常响应函数。在斯洛文尼亚的 12 个地点收集了数据，这些地点的气候状况不同，海拔在 170 到 1300 米之间，asl VS 模型结果显示，较低海拔的较干燥的挪威云杉地点大多水分有限，而潮湿的高海拔地点通常更受温度限制。日响应函数与 VS 模型中的生长限制因子模式匹配良好，进一步解释了气候对径向生长的影响：主要生长限制因子对应于相关性较高的气候变量。径向生长与夏季气温升高呈负相关，与春季降水量增加呈正相关。在海拔最高的最潮湿地点观察到相反的反应，它对夏季温度升高产生积极反应，并且很可能会受益于气候变暖。对于所有其他地点，挪威云杉未来的径向生长在很大程度上取决于春季降水和夏季温度之间的平衡。主要的增长限制因素对应于具有较高相关性的气候变量。径向生长与夏季气温升高呈负相关，与春季降水量增加呈正相关。在海拔最高的最潮湿地点观察到相反的反应，它对夏季温度升高产生积极反应，并且很可能会受益于气候变暖。对于所有其他地点，挪威云杉未来的径向生长在很大程度上取决于春季降水和夏季温度之间的平衡。主要的增长限制因素对应于具有较高相关性的气候变量。径向生长与夏季气温升高呈负相关，与春季降水量增加呈正相关。在海拔最高的最潮湿地点观察到相反的反应，它对夏季温度升高产生积极反应，并且很可能会受益于气候变暖。对于所有其他地点，挪威云杉未来的径向生长在很大程度上取决于春季降水和夏季温度之间的平衡。它对夏季温度升高做出积极反应，并且很可能会受益于气候变暖。对于所有其他地点，挪威云杉未来的径向生长在很大程度上取决于春季降水和夏季温度之间的平衡。它对夏季温度升高做出积极反应，并且很可能会受益于气候变暖。对于所有其他地点，挪威云杉未来的径向生长在很大程度上取决于春季降水和夏季温度之间的平衡。